[Interesting Times]

Rasmussen is excellent, but I think that his Republican / Democrat ratio is significantly lagging recent events. He’s using something like an 8-point gap, and that no longer reflects reality on the ground.

[xzins]

Rasmussen uses a rolling 90 day average of self-reports. The self-report makes sense to me. He asks people what they consider themselves to be, Pub, Dem, or Indie. I can't think of a better way. It's certainly much better than those pollsters who just "assume" a ratio.

The 90 day rolling average means that he balances the current with the past. That also seems reasonable to me.

It might be true that folks are currently more excited about the Repub ticket, but we don't know what they'll be thinking on Nov 4, 2008. If we accept that they fluctuate, and then find a way to average it all out, then we'll have a less dynamic ratio, but it'll be a more conservative one.

I have to admit, though, that I prefer to worst-case things like elections. It's not that I can't be positive. It's just that I like to be prepared for when the sh__ hits the fan. :>)

[Tennessean4Bush]

Rasmussen is excellent, but I think that his Republican / Democrat ratio is significantly lagging recent events. He’s using something like an 8-point gap, and that no longer reflects reality on the ground

Yep.