This means that most of the BO Bounce is gone, and there are 2 more days of the convention yet to factor in. I think the Repub Convention will wipe out the entire BO Bounce and go UP by about 6 points.
That is the reason for the panicky response of Obama the last few days: (1) the meeting with O’Reilly would NOT happen if his internal polling said he was ahead; (2) Obama campaigning in rural Ohio is unheard of and terribly unproductive — it’s a desperate move....rural Ohio will not go for him.
FWIW, I think it's going to come down to OH., CO., NV. The problem is figuring out Black turnout and Hispanic backlash.