Posted on 09/05/2008 7:31:30 AM PDT by frankjr
If I were Joe Biden I’d be hiring a food-taster about now...
In 2004 the democrats led right after their convention. The republicans took the led after their own convention and kept it for the rest of the election. This will probably be a 3 point McCain lead tomorrow.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Yep, they already wiped out the Obama's bounce and now it's time to see just how big the Palin bounce is. I have a feeling all those Democrats who laughed their butts off at the Palin pick will be laughing anymore.
This is Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday polling. Most of each days polling is completed before the nightly convention speeches.
So only Wed/Thur reflect anything based on the convention.
The Friday, Saturday, Sunday polling will reflect 3 full days AFTER the convention. We will see these tracking polls Monday.
That is why Zogby/Rasmussen are saying the bounce will not show up to early next week. Remember Obama’s bounce did not fully show up until this past Tuesday.
Anyway, the trends are good. Before the DEM convention, every poll had McCain gaining and Obama loosing. This is both national and state polls. Right before the convention, McCain was tied or ahead in most polls. And also most of these are RV polls. We have seen from recent and historical polling that republicans get an extra 2-3 points when it is narrowed to LV polls.
Just for reference, Obama was +4 yesterday without leaners and +5 with leaners. So today the gap has closed by 3.
I want a poll of where are the add buys?
In which states are candidates buying air time?
Obama is pushing the notion that without colorado mccain can’t win.
Which states are so safe that there is no effort to fight there?
I hope Palin goes to California to help the downticket.
A few days after the 1988 Democrat National Convention, Dukakis led by about 20%. In Nov., Bush won, 54%-46%.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
It will take about a week to see the actual RNC bounce.
Before, it is just empty talks from scared liberals.
“Obama has never led any city, state of military unit. Nothing. Nada !” Giuliani, Sept 3 2008
Pair this poll with the Obama should be higher MSM push stories and we MIGHT have donors slowwwwly closing their wallets.
If McCain-Palin keeps gaining like this look for a LANDSLIDE for McCain-Palin,
Yep. And let's look at 2000, the last open race (although Gore was a pseudo incumbent). According to Gallup Gov. Bush led Gore 55%-39% after the GOP convention. One week later, after the Dem convention, Gore led Bush 47%-46%.
The democrats are not being helped by the scandal in Detroit either. And Palin seems to identify well with MI voters.
FULL FRONTAL ASSAULT on this terrorist who posed as a "police officer", who threatened to KILL Palin's father and TASERED his own 12-year old son. Get the story out. Women across America will rally to Sarah's cause.
I’m happy with these #’s. Was down 6 in Ras now only 1. I’m just glad Obama didn’t gain or maintain....
As I remember that campaign, it was a choice between Bob Dole and Pat Buchanan. Ralph Reed threw his support to Dole, and that put him over the top. In retrospect, Reed was right, although it cost him his job: Buchanan would have been worse. But Dole immediately proceeded to kick the Evangelicals in the teeth before the convention even had ended. He repudiated the pro-life movement, reached out to the clintons and the RINOs, and went steadily downhill from there.
I don't think McCain and Palin will do that. McCain has been making more sense as the campaign progresses, moving to consolidate his base and turning away from the RINOs who nominated him. Palin has fired the base up. It's the exact opposite of what Dole did.
They almost certainly will keep gaining through next week.
And then, when the bounce recedes...?
No, it’s not all garbage. The polls show trends and that’s helpful. But I certainly wouldn’t stake my campaign on the exact numbers.
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