Skip to comments.Continuing Upward Pressure On Retail Gasoline Prices Expected
Posted on 05/21/2008 6:58:14 PM PDT by blam
Continuing Upward Pressure On Retail Gasoline Prices Expected
ScienceDaily (May 22, 2008) With the price of a barrel of oil hovering around $120, U.S. drivers can expect to pay more at the pump in the near future, according to a new study by Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy.
"There is room for retail gasoline prices to move up," said Kenneth Medlock III, a Baker Institute fellow in energy studies and one of the study's authors. While Medlock cautioned that seasonal variability and other factors could affect prices in the near term, he said gasoline could easily reach $4.20/gallon around the Memorial Day holiday, especially if demand spikes as it normally does.
The study, titled "U.S. Energy Policy and Transportation," is part of a series of working papers on "The Global Energy Market: Comprehensive Strategies to Meet Geopolitical and Financial Risks." It was co-authored by Medlock and Amy Myers Jaffe, the Wallace S. Wilson Fellow in Energy Studies at the Baker Institute.
"In the short term," the study found, "temporary demand and supply factors can cause gasoline prices to rise substantially. Given the shortage in refinery capacity in the United States, these short-run departures have been growing larger and more frequent. Demand has grown steadily, but U.S. refinery capacity has not kept pace. Thus, the U.S. market has become increasingly dependent on foreign gasoline imports. At the same time, growing demand elsewhere in the world means increased competition for gasoline, which, in turn, drives up the price to attract imports during high U.S. demand periods."
However, the study also warned against blaming the growing demand in other countries for the high fuel prices in the United States. "Many have pointed to growing demand in Asia as the culprit for higher prices," according to the study, "but the United States consumes 33 percent of the worlds road transportation fuel and demand continues to grow. Thus, as American demand goes, so goes the world price of oil."
The only way to address high energy prices over the long term, the study's authors argued, is to curb U.S. demand growth. They call for "a combination of conservation, higher fuel efficiency, alternative fuels and greater domestic production capacity" to achieve "manageable and acceptable" gasoline prices in the future.
The study may be viewed at http://www.rice.edu/nationalmedia/multimedia/gasprice-transportation.pdf.
Adapted from materials provided by Rice University.
Oil was at $134.00 a barrel today.
You should have a plan designed to deal with these higher gasoline prices.
My plan is to just stay home...I'm retired. I'm presently using 1/2 gallon of gasoline daily(average).
Well folk the Saudis.
You are correct.
Gasoline prices are not going down anytime soon (read years).
I've already started by buying a motorcycle. I might fabricate a sidecar for it.
There are plenty of places I can walk to if need be. (grocery store, barbershop, motorcycle parts, etc)
I know how to can and store food for winter use.
One thing I'm still lacking is a wood stove or a fireplace for winter heating
We could curb other nations useage.
We could increase our own supply.
We could vote all of Congress out of office.
We could export Mexicans until Mexico supplies 3 bbl/illegal/day.
There's all sorts of things to do.
My plan is to increase the size of my tactical Diesel reserve.
The problem is Congress, not the Saudis or OPEC or anybody else. We have enough oil on the continental shelf and other domestic sources to be independent. Congress has shirked its responsiblity and allowed us to be manipulated by our enemies on a whim. It’s now a matter of national security and we should begin drilling at all available sources.
Well that is a true story too.
IIRC US demand has fallen on the order of 1-2% over the past year.
This is driven by speculators.
No cheers, unfortunately.
Bingo. Congress is the root of this problem. Drill and it goes away.
No worries, mate. Congress just passed a bill yesterday saying it is OK to sue OPEC. Everything is going to be just fine.
When people start dying because of this, Congress will listen. This isn’t a game any longer, and this nation may be due another revolution.
I wish I shared your confidence about Congress.
Yeh, I only get 50 MPG but it does have a larger engine.
Careful. It will go bad if you don't add stabilizer.
I want to get to where I can keep enough around for a couple of tanks worth for one of the vehicles and for the generator.
Should it ever come down to running it for the short term, I fully expect my liberal, hypocrite, eco-wacko neighbor to be on the warpath or actually try to fake being nice. Either way, I don't have that kind of capacity.
“We have enough oil on the continental shelf and other domestic sources to be independent”
———I brought this point up in an argument with a friend,
He just told me the reason we don’t drill is because we will continue importing until the rest of the world runs out,
then we will tap into our own resources once the rest of the world is dry and we end up with the only reserves left.
I didn’t know what to make of it, i just left it at that!
BTW I am unemployed now so i don’t use much gas. I fill up maybe once a month and gas i use is when i go visit my friends and family or hobby shopping. unfortunately friends live 20miles away, i do convince them to come my way and hang out too!
I hope to find a job soon though :)
In fact, the supplied oil is more than demanded
"United States proven oil reserves declined to a little less than 21 billion barrels (3.3×109 m3) as of 2006 according to the Energy Information Administration, ...
If the United States had to supply its entire demand of 21 million barrels per day (3.3×106 m3/d) without resorting to foreign imports, existing US reserves would last only three years at the current rate of consumption." - link
According to this, U.S. demand for oil has been dropping.
This does not take into account the worlds larges oil shale fields in Colorado (the highest quality shale in the world) and Wyoming that contain more than 1 TRILLION barrels that could begin production in the next decade (Source: Testimony of Terry O’Connor, Shell Executive, at Republican hearings last week on C-SPAN3).
This is the lesson I am trying to unlearn
Bigger is Better
I have owned 5 Bikes, of varying sizes
My Piaggio 250 is adequate to 95% of the tasks your bike does
It is insufficient to travel on the Interstates
For the most part, it does not matter
Most of what I must do can be done on this bike
And from a standpoint of Biker Life
It is all about The Ride
Any time spent NOT in a cage of steel
is time well spent
Also, it is MORE fun
to drive a slow bike, fast,
Than to drive a fast bike, slow.
I'll stick to my bike in a difficult economic climate
But I'd LOVE to spend time on your bike.
Live to Ride
Ride to Live
Live in Peace
I was just stating for the unlearned reading the thread why I only got 50 MPG.
Not being able to get on the Interstate would be a large bother to me. But then again, I commute 300 miles a week.
Ride safe, ride long.