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Continuing Upward Pressure On Retail Gasoline Prices Expected
Science Daily ^ | 5-22-2008 | Rice University

Posted on 05/21/2008 6:58:14 PM PDT by blam

Continuing Upward Pressure On Retail Gasoline Prices Expected

ScienceDaily (May 22, 2008) — With the price of a barrel of oil hovering around $120, U.S. drivers can expect to pay more at the pump in the near future, according to a new study by Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy.

"There is room for retail gasoline prices to move up," said Kenneth Medlock III, a Baker Institute fellow in energy studies and one of the study's authors. While Medlock cautioned that seasonal variability and other factors could affect prices in the near term, he said gasoline could easily reach $4.20/gallon around the Memorial Day holiday, especially if demand spikes as it normally does.

The study, titled "U.S. Energy Policy and Transportation," is part of a series of working papers on "The Global Energy Market: Comprehensive Strategies to Meet Geopolitical and Financial Risks." It was co-authored by Medlock and Amy Myers Jaffe, the Wallace S. Wilson Fellow in Energy Studies at the Baker Institute.

"In the short term," the study found, "temporary demand and supply factors can cause gasoline prices to rise substantially. Given the shortage in refinery capacity in the United States, these short-run departures have been growing larger and more frequent. Demand has grown steadily, but U.S. refinery capacity has not kept pace. Thus, the U.S. market has become increasingly dependent on foreign gasoline imports. At the same time, growing demand elsewhere in the world means increased competition for gasoline, which, in turn, drives up the price to attract imports during high U.S. demand periods."

However, the study also warned against blaming the growing demand in other countries for the high fuel prices in the United States. "Many have pointed to growing demand in Asia as the culprit for higher prices," according to the study, "but the United States consumes 33 percent of the world’s road transportation fuel and demand continues to grow. Thus, as American demand goes, so goes the world price of oil."

The only way to address high energy prices over the long term, the study's authors argued, is to curb U.S. demand growth. They call for "a combination of conservation, higher fuel efficiency, alternative fuels and greater domestic production capacity" to achieve "manageable and acceptable" gasoline prices in the future.

The study may be viewed at http://www.rice.edu/nationalmedia/multimedia/gasprice-transportation.pdf.

Adapted from materials provided by Rice University.


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: energy; energyprices; gasoline; gasprices; oil; pressure; retail; upward
"With the price of a barrel of oil hovering around $120..."

Oil was at $134.00 a barrel today.

You should have a plan designed to deal with these higher gasoline prices.

My plan is to just stay home...I'm retired. I'm presently using 1/2 gallon of gasoline daily(average).

1 posted on 05/21/2008 6:58:16 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam

Well folk the Saudis.


2 posted on 05/21/2008 7:03:50 PM PDT by yldstrk (My heros have always been cowboys--Reagan and Bush)
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To: blam
You should have a plan designed to deal with these higher gasoline prices.

You are correct.
Gasoline prices are not going down anytime soon (read years).

I've already started by buying a motorcycle. I might fabricate a sidecar for it.

There are plenty of places I can walk to if need be. (grocery store, barbershop, motorcycle parts, etc)
I know how to can and store food for winter use.
One thing I'm still lacking is a wood stove or a fireplace for winter heating

3 posted on 05/21/2008 7:05:14 PM PDT by Just another Joe (Warning: FReeping can be addictive and helpful to your mental health)
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To: blam
"The only way to address high energy prices over the long term, the study's authors argued, is to curb U.S. demand growth"

Wrong.

We could curb other nations useage.

We could increase our own supply.

We could vote all of Congress out of office.

We could export Mexicans until Mexico supplies 3 bbl/illegal/day.

There's all sorts of things to do.

4 posted on 05/21/2008 7:12:21 PM PDT by Paladin2 (Huma for co-president!)
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To: blam

My plan is to increase the size of my tactical Diesel reserve.


5 posted on 05/21/2008 7:13:35 PM PDT by Paladin2 (Huma for co-president!)
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To: yldstrk

The problem is Congress, not the Saudis or OPEC or anybody else. We have enough oil on the continental shelf and other domestic sources to be independent. Congress has shirked its responsiblity and allowed us to be manipulated by our enemies on a whim. It’s now a matter of national security and we should begin drilling at all available sources.


6 posted on 05/21/2008 7:17:38 PM PDT by balls
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To: balls

Well that is a true story too.


7 posted on 05/21/2008 7:18:36 PM PDT by yldstrk (My heros have always been cowboys--Reagan and Bush)
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To: Just another Joe
I've already started by buying a motorcycle. I might fabricate a sidecar for it.

My current stallion Piaggio BV 250


8 posted on 05/21/2008 7:19:36 PM PDT by HangnJudge
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To: blam
It'd be interesting to plot the US *consumer* usage (gross and per capita) vs. inflation adjusted gasoline price over time.

IIRC US demand has fallen on the order of 1-2% over the past year.

This is driven by speculators.

No cheers, unfortunately.

9 posted on 05/21/2008 7:24:31 PM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: Paladin2
I just may start a stockpile of fuel myself. It is getting totally out of hand. Whatever kind of event(s) it will take to get some action out of the government to do something would probably be very disruptive for the short term. Apparently the thick-headed and the arrogant types in power just can't be bothered with reality.
10 posted on 05/21/2008 7:27:41 PM PDT by wally_bert (Tactical Is Still Missing A Chair!)
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To: balls

Bingo. Congress is the root of this problem. Drill and it goes away.


11 posted on 05/21/2008 7:30:18 PM PDT by Dutch Boy
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To: blam

No worries, mate. Congress just passed a bill yesterday saying it is OK to sue OPEC. Everything is going to be just fine.


12 posted on 05/21/2008 7:30:58 PM PDT by TigersEye (Berlin 1936. Olympics for murdering regimes. Beijing 2008.)
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To: TigersEye

When people start dying because of this, Congress will listen. This isn’t a game any longer, and this nation may be due another revolution.


13 posted on 05/21/2008 7:35:52 PM PDT by Arkansas Toothpick
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To: HangnJudge
That’ll do – but not quite as cool lookin’ as mine. ;^P


14 posted on 05/21/2008 7:37:29 PM PDT by Just another Joe (Warning: FReeping can be addictive and helpful to your mental health)
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To: Just another Joe
That’ll do – but not quite as cool lookin’ as mine. ;^P

Yup, you beat me on cool, but I get up to 80mpg
15 posted on 05/21/2008 7:40:18 PM PDT by HangnJudge
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To: Arkansas Toothpick

I wish I shared your confidence about Congress.


16 posted on 05/21/2008 7:43:33 PM PDT by TigersEye (Berlin 1936. Olympics for murdering regimes. Beijing 2008.)
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To: HangnJudge

Yeh, I only get 50 MPG but it does have a larger engine.


17 posted on 05/21/2008 7:43:39 PM PDT by Just another Joe (Warning: FReeping can be addictive and helpful to your mental health)
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To: wally_bert
"I just may start a stockpile of fuel myself."

Careful. It will go bad if you don't add stabilizer.

18 posted on 05/21/2008 7:44:21 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam
The reminder is appreciated as I am kind of low on it.

I want to get to where I can keep enough around for a couple of tanks worth for one of the vehicles and for the generator.

Should it ever come down to running it for the short term, I fully expect my liberal, hypocrite, eco-wacko neighbor to be on the warpath or actually try to fake being nice. Either way, I don't have that kind of capacity.

19 posted on 05/21/2008 7:57:29 PM PDT by wally_bert (Tactical Is Still Missing A Chair!)
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To: Arkansas Toothpick
Sadly, it will probably take quite a few for the elitist, marxist, arrogant, and terminally stupid political types to mean anything. Some of them will love it since there will be that many fewer common people around to be in the way of making utopia.
20 posted on 05/21/2008 8:00:18 PM PDT by wally_bert (Tactical Is Still Missing A Chair!)
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To: balls

“We have enough oil on the continental shelf and other domestic sources to be independent”

———I brought this point up in an argument with a friend,
He just told me the reason we don’t drill is because we will continue importing until the rest of the world runs out,
then we will tap into our own resources once the rest of the world is dry and we end up with the only reserves left.

I didn’t know what to make of it, i just left it at that!
aaaargh.
BTW I am unemployed now so i don’t use much gas. I fill up maybe once a month and gas i use is when i go visit my friends and family or hobby shopping. unfortunately friends live 20miles away, i do convince them to come my way and hang out too!
I hope to find a job soon though :)


21 posted on 05/21/2008 8:36:39 PM PDT by 1FASTGLOCK45 (FreeRepublic: More fun than watching Dem'Rats drown like Turkeys in the rain! ! !)
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To: blam

In fact, the supplied oil is more than demanded


22 posted on 05/21/2008 9:27:38 PM PDT by qinxuefei
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To: balls; 1FASTGLOCK45; yldstrk
We have enough oil on the continental shelf and other domestic sources to be independent.

"United States proven oil reserves declined to a little less than 21 billion barrels (3.3×109 m3) as of 2006 according to the Energy Information Administration, ...

If the United States had to supply its entire demand of 21 million barrels per day (3.3×106 m3/d) without resorting to foreign imports, existing US reserves would last only three years at the current rate of consumption." - link

23 posted on 05/21/2008 9:58:00 PM PDT by wideminded
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To: blam
"but the United States consumes 33 percent of the world’s road transportation fuel and demand continues to grow."

According to this, U.S. demand for oil has been dropping.

24 posted on 05/21/2008 10:34:49 PM PDT by raisetheroof ("To become Red is to become dead --- gradually." Alexander Solzhenitsyn)
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To: wally_bert
I started the tactical reserve when there was the price run-up due to Katrina. Now it seems like it's a good idea for all holidays and for hurricane season. In addition there was a weekly fluctuation that made getting a weekly tankful a constant price monitoring exercise.
25 posted on 05/22/2008 2:42:27 AM PDT by Paladin2 (Huma for co-president!)
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To: wideminded

This does not take into account the worlds larges oil shale fields in Colorado (the highest quality shale in the world) and Wyoming that contain more than 1 TRILLION barrels that could begin production in the next decade (Source: Testimony of Terry O’Connor, Shell Executive, at Republican hearings last week on C-SPAN3).


26 posted on 05/22/2008 7:01:48 AM PDT by balls
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To: Just another Joe
Yeh, I only get 50 MPG but it does have a larger engine.

This is the lesson I am trying to unlearn
Bigger is Better

I have owned 5 Bikes, of varying sizes
My Piaggio 250 is adequate to 95% of the tasks your bike does
It is insufficient to travel on the Interstates

For the most part, it does not matter
Most of what I must do can be done on this bike

And from a standpoint of Biker Life
It is all about The Ride

Any time spent NOT in a cage of steel
is time well spent

Also, it is MORE fun
to drive a slow bike, fast,
Than to drive a fast bike, slow.

I'll stick to my bike in a difficult economic climate
But I'd LOVE to spend time on your bike.

Live to Ride
Ride to Live

Live in Peace

27 posted on 05/22/2008 3:16:53 PM PDT by HangnJudge
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To: HangnJudge
Well, I actually wasn't trying to say that bigger is better.

I was just stating for the unlearned reading the thread why I only got 50 MPG.

Not being able to get on the Interstate would be a large bother to me. But then again, I commute 300 miles a week.

Ride safe, ride long.

28 posted on 05/23/2008 5:59:38 AM PDT by Just another Joe (Warning: FReeping can be addictive and helpful to your mental health)
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