Uggghhh, well great. If Udall or Richardson get in, here’s yet another seat we have to seriously contest.
I count eight seats as either very vulnerable or relatively vulnerable: VA, NH, CO, NM, ME, MN, OR, NE (that last one assumes Kerrey’s entrance into NE-Sen, which is still in a definite remains-to-be-seen state). Oh yeah, and the DSCC is far outraising the NRSC. I think I’m getting a headache.
I know people view Senators like Warner, Domenici, and Hagel as RINOs, but they voted with us much more often than they voted against us. And if in ‘09 we have Sens. Mark Warner, Tom Udall, and Bob Kerrey, I think some around here will miss having the former three around.
Additionally, I think Kerrey may not enter anymore. With Johanns entering the race and the Hsu scandal hanging over Kerrey, I think its no longer 50/50 that he may enter and is probably 60/40 against.
Saying all that, assuming Alaska remains safe, we have seven vulnerable seats. If Iraq continues to improve and we can at least push the issue somewhat to the side, I think Gordon Smith, Susan Collins and Norm Coleman will win.
That leaves VA, NH, NM and CO as the tossups. We will be hard pressed to win in NH or VA. Although people are counting us out in Colorado, I think we can still win there. As far as New Mexico, I have no idea until we see who the candidates will be. Either way, we are looking at losses somewhere between -1 to -7. The only way I can see Republicans taking back the Senate is if there is a huge anti-Hillary tide. But it is important if we don’t reclaim the Senate to keep the Democrat majority slim. If we can win the Presidency and a Supreme Court vacancy appears, having 48 Republicans instead of 41 (at worst) will make a huge difference in who we can get confirmed. Getting 2 Democrat votes (Lieberman and Nelson as most likely) is a lot different than having to get 8-9.