Posted on 09/12/2007 6:21:55 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
It's just one week after the primary, and the race for the 5th Congressional District is shaping up to be a close one.
Here are the results of our exclusive Fast Track: If the election were held today, Democrat Niki Tsongas would pick up 51 percent of the vote, to 41 percent for Republican Jim Ogonowski.
Get complete survey results here.
Elections are all about the public mood, what's really on the minds of voters, and which candidate connects with that most effectively.
And while our survey gives the antiwar candidate the lead, it offers big-time hope for the anti-Congress candidate.
First, the good news for Niki Tsongas. She not only has that 10-point lead, but she's reaping the harvest of a yawning gender gap.
In our Fast Track survey, Ogonowski has a commanding 13 point-lead among men, who tend to skew a bit more conservative. But Tsongas holds a whopping 32-point margin among women, surely in part due to excitement over the prospect of sending our first woman to Congress in 25 years.
“Make no mistake, this election will be a referendum on the presidency of George Bush,” Tsongas told her supporters on primary night.
Now, the bad news for Tsongas.
Yes, voters in the 5th hold the current administration in low esteem, but they're every bit as fed up with the Democrat-controlled Congress.
(Excerpt) Read more at wbztv.com ...
This is very surprising news. I never expected this race to be competitive.
If an upset actually occurs, perhaps John Kerry could be vulnerable next year.
Any relation to Paul Tsongas?
In any case, I can’t imagine a Republican could win this Taxachussetts district.
She’s the widow of Paul Tsongas, which is why she won the Democrat primary.
I cannot figure out what people see in Niki Taxongas and everything else. She has no real political track record and only got the plum job as dean of Middlesex (by the way which sex is the middle one, can a Massghanistani enlighten me?) Community College because of political patronage.
Right after the primary, a local radio show interviewed Ogonowski and Tsongas (separately). One question basically went, "There's a lot of national attention on this race, what do you think about that?"
Paraphrasing:
Ogonowski: "I'm running to be the representative of this district. I'm waging a grass roots campaign, going door to door, asking people what they care about. And people care about their taxes, they care about property values. They want good jobs, they're worried about national security. I'm running for office because I think I can help make this district a better place for these people."
Tsongas: "It's all about Bush. He's a disgrace. People all across this country want him out. He lied about the war, people are dying, and we just need to put a Democrat in the White House so that things like national health care can be made available to everyone."
Sigh. Not too surprising which candidate will catch fire in MA.
Headline should be: “Sexist voters give Tsongas the edge.”
I thought he was relatively young and hadn’t known he had passed away, in any case, I doubt this election will end up being very close.
I’m not shocked by the margin, as it is one of the least Democratic districts in Mass, although it is still a Kerry district.
While I would be elated if we won, as with New Jersey, I think this is one of those teaser deals where I wouldn’t really get my hopes up too much.
Tsongas died back in January 1997 (interesting that had he been elected President, he would’ve died right before the end of his first term).
I don’t believe this for a minute.After RAT Party Headquarters gets finished showering Tsongas with Chinese campaign cash Ogonowski will be lucky to get 33% of the vote.
This is within the range I predicted. 35% if he does average. 40% if he does well. If he goes above 40%, that will be remarkable. No Republican candidate for Congress in MA has received over 40% since 1998.
Even without illegal money, Repubs can’t win in MA.
Paul Tsongas only served one term in the US Senate due to cancer. Kerry replaced him in 1985. He died just a couple of days before Clinton's second inauguration. His health was a big reason he didn't get the 1992 Democratic nomination even thought he won the New Hampshire primary.
Massachusetts is beyond help and hideously liberal. The 5th district is better than Cambridge but Tsongas will win at least 60-40.
If all of the USA was like MA, we would be a weaker version of France and I would be living in Sydney, Australia.
Massachusetts is beyond help and hideously liberal. The 5th district is better than Cambridge but Tsongas will win at least 60-40.
If all of the USA was like MA, we would be a weaker version of France and I would be living in Sydney, Australia.
The name Oganowski sounds familiar, I heard it within the last few days.
Tsongas I’ve heard of because of her husband.
A pubbie getting elected in MA, in Meehan’s district? And they are calling a ten point lead “close”, like the media wants pubbies to throw money at the race perhaps to drain the coffers for ‘08.
Although a liberal on most issues, and in his heart, Paul Tsongas was fair minded and intellectually honest. It showed in the cordial relationship he had with Rush Limbaugh. Even though Rush would tease him as Paul “Tax-on-Gas,” because Tsongas was honest enough to advocate a gas tax he believed in, Tsongas never dismissed Rush or the legitimacy of his conservative viewpoint. Rush saw that, and on the date of Paul’s death, in appreciation, Rush did a tribute at the end of his TV show saying, disagreements and kidding aside, Tsongas was a stand-up guy. I’ll never forget it.
“Sydney, Australia.”
Australia as a whole is much more left/liberal than the USA. I take it you don’t own guns? You won’t be taking them down under.
If the Democrats do end up winning everything important on November 4, 2008, then the entire U.S. will end up being just like Massachusetts! Be afraid. Be very afraid.
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