Lopez Obrador claims constitutional authority, calls "National Democratic Convention" (Translation)

eluniversal.com.mx ^ | August 15, 2006 | Jorge Ramos ( translated by self )

[ASOC]

Thanks

My folks still live on the border, I would like to give them a heads up if something is going to pop. Always nice to take a vacation....

[StJacques]

". . . Rioting and unrest seem likely, but it looks like the government is safe and that the vast majority of Mexicans will be happy to see this guy crushed when the time comes. . . ."

I think you just gave the "preview of coming affairs" if I may put it that way Reverend. It is sad that AMLO is going to lead his followers on a common path of martyrdom, because they have nothing to gain -- excepting AMLO's desire to remain the focus of messianic idol-worship -- and so much to lose. But in the end the consensus of Mexican opinion will come down as you have described it. Fox and his administration have shown what I consider to be remarkable restraint and, in light of that, once the decision is finally made to strike back, the overwhelming majority of the Mexican people will stand by their government, even though there may be both a regional and class character to that support.

But what a tragedy we may have to watch. There are few things that get uglier than political violence and AMLO and his supporters are determined to either be given what they demand or force the issue outside of the law.

I'm going to go back to my university studies in Weberian analysis in political science and point out that there is a difference between overthrowing the regime, which we all have the right to do in a democracy, and overthrowing the state, a right which none of us possesses. Lopez Obrador and his followers are discussing the overthrow of the state and the portents for the future are most ominous as a result. It's so sad.

[Reaganez]

I think this whole "panic situation" is a bit overblown.

This is not 1920's Mexico nor 19th century Mexico.

As much as some people, through pure ignorance or willful ignorance, seemed determined to portray Mexico as a piss poor shithole.

It is not.Mexico is not Bolivia,nor worse, some failed African State. The Mexican State is strong and Mexico is a middle income country not a "poor" country.

Looking at Mexican television,reading Mexican newspapers, and talking to Mexican relatives there is not a real sense of national crisis, a sense that chaos/revolution is on the cusp.

This is a transitory political crisis.Yes, more serious than Florida 2000 but not like recent events in Bolivia,Ecuador,or Venezuela.

Despite the PRD's attempts to nationalize the matter it is largely a Mexico City affair. The Oaxaca situation is really limited to a small radicalized group of teachers and will be settled IMO within the first six months of the Calderon administration. Fox has retirement on his Guanajato ranch already in mind and does not care to get involved.

[StJacques]

Well I certainly hope you're right about the "panic situation" being overblown, but I will point out that I do see Mexico as a much more modernized nation than most here at FR and I have never bashed the country.

But I also know that many who are in the Mexico City area are genuinely concerned that they are on the verge of a true crisis situation breaking out. We even have one poster here, rovenstinez, who is there now and he is pointing to genuine fears many have. It is all over the newspapers in Mexico City and elsewhere; Reforma, El Universal, La Crónica de Hoy, and many others have both reported and editorialized -- and I think some of the editorials are especially important, Ezra Shabot and Sergio Sarmiento of Reforma have been especially alarmed at AMLO -- on the possibility of the ingobernabilidad del pais. Fox himself has recently been asked questions about what the conditions are under which he will resort to the use of the army -- he refused to answer -- and the fact that he is now calling Federal Police into action is not something that can be ignored.

More than anything else I am looking at the Left under AMLO's leadership. I know the Latin American Left outside of Mexico very well and what has been particularly unusual about this particular presidential campaign is that for the first time in a long time the Left in Mexico has formed and maintained close ties with the Left in larger Latin America. Venezuelan and Bolivian activists working for AMLO were kicked out of the country and Chavez came back at Fox in public statements after that; Cuban "diplomats" were recalled to Havana at the request of the Fox government for their activism in AMLO's campaign, and money came flowing in to the PRD from elsewhere in Latin America, something that has never happened before on this scale. When you add into that the fact that AMLO has been able to turn out crowds 800,000 strong as recently as four weeks ago, you've got something quite real on your hands.

I have not been trying to spread any word that this is happening because I see Mexico as immature. Just earlier today I was explaining how sophisticated they were in fact. But I do see real dangers in AMLO that must be contained and I am not certain that the solution to the problem he represents has yet been found.

[Texan5]

It looks as though Obrador and his faction are delusional-I agree with those who predict that when the loss of tourist dollars pinches harder, he will get a smackdown. I just hope no one gets hurt in the meantime.

I talked to my cousin who works for a hotel chain last night, and she said her boss told her they are not as booked as they should be at this time of year, even allowing for higher fuel prices.

[MattinNJ]

One of the unfortnate by-products of the WOT is that we have not paid enough attention south of our border. Lula in Brazil, Chavez, Argentina, Chile, etc...have all lurched left. Uibe is doing a great job in Columbia but we cut our aid to him ostensibly because of our expenditures on the WOT.

[StJacques]

That's an interesting comment you made about Uribe. Do you know that the DEA has credited Uribe with breaking the drug cartels in Colombia -- and this does not include the FARC who are an army unto themselves -- into smaller organizations that focus on production of cocaine almost exclusively now, and which no longer operate extensive worldwide distribution networks? The DEA also says that, unfortunately, Mexican drug operations have stepped in to take care of the distribution now, but that's something the Colombians cannot effectively stop given that those contacts are so very low profile as to be nearly unseen.

A couple of weeks ago I posted in a discussion pertaining to the recent successes of the Left in Latin America that I see only three countries in which there is a powerful Left wing within national politics and where the Right wing has shown the balls to stand up to the Left; Colombia, Nicaragua, and Mexico. That's not a long list and it's one of the reasons why what is going on in Mexico right now is so very important for the larger political landscape in Latin America.

[Kozak]

It really does seem as if he is intent on starting a civil war down there, doesn't it?

Sure is a good thing we don't have any kind of wall or barrier on the border. /sarc

[Kozak]

The Mexican State is strong and Mexico is a middle income country not a "poor" country.

Maybe because they have shipped the poorest 10% of Mexico to the US?

[MattinNJ]

I am afraid we are fighting a two front war. You are right, Mexico is critical-especially because of the oil.

[El Gato]

People in Mexico generally don't trust police.

Generally with very good reason.