It really is maddeningly close. As the total counted went from 84% to the current 92%, the Calderon "need to gain" has stayed beteen 11.7% and 13.0%, meaning he is right on a path to come up to a dead heat! The last few bumps have been optimistic, but only by the tiniest of margins. If the remaining are not radically different than the last few percent (and, of course, they could be, per the PAN confidence spin), we are looking at Florida territory, which would not have been the case with even a 260,000 vote margin.
Whatever happens, it will likely be in the small decimals.