Lopez Obrador leading Calderon in Mexican Vote Recount [Update: Calderon now leading]

www.easybourse.com ^ | 05 July 2006 | Tom Barkley

[chilepepper]

MEXICO CITY -(Dow Jones)- Mexico's leftist presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador holds a small lead in the final vote count being conducted by the Federal Electoral Institute, or IFE, based on results from 35.2% of polling stations, The Associated Press reported Wednesday afternoon.

Lopez Obrador, of the Democratic Revolution Party, or PRD, is ahead with 37.1%, while conservative Felipe Calderon of the ruling National Action Party, or PAN, has 34.3% of the vote, according to IFE.

A quick tally the night of Sunday's vote proved too close for IFE to call a winner, so election officials Wednesday started a full review of tallies compiled by polling stations. The process could take several days to complete.

In a preliminary vote count, Calderon led by a little over 400,000 votes, about 1 percentage point, with 98.5% of the country's more than 130,000 balloting places reporting.

Lopez Obrador's campaign has rejected the preliminary results and called on IFE to open ballot boxes and conduct a vote-by-vote recount, citing irregularities. Leonel Cota, president of the PRD, upped the stakes Wednesday by saying the campaign won't concede the election without a full recount.

While parties can appeal to district election officials to open ballot boxes for a recount, it's unclear if a nationwide recount is allowed under Mexican law.

[conservative in nyc]

91.03% - lead down to 1.16%.

The margin needs to fall .1293% for each 1% from now on in order to get a tie. And the PAN must beat PRD by 11.77% points to tie, 18.57% points to win by 250,000 (assuming 41 million votes cast).

Assuming 41,000,00 votes were cast (and each precinct is the same size as those counted), Obrador leads by about 433,000 with 3.68 million left to count.

[CedarDave]

91.21%, Obragore by 1.13%

[jveritas]

Are the 3.68 millions votes from areas won by Calderon?

[A CA Guy]

I don't know the exact original numbers, but if Calderon was up by over 100k to begin with, that would be a lot to overcome without fraud.

[Cringing Negativism Network]

BUILD THAT WALL NOW.

[MaineVoter2002]

I mean violent, blood in the streets pissed off. This guy is gonna be another Chavez-Castro crony

We must not drop the ball. We need to be focusing on what is happening here in the Americas along with fighting the WOT. We're losing too many American nations to marxism in this new century.

ELECTION 2006

[BunnySlippers]

Meaning, Calderon's PAN may have tinkered with the original numbers?

[CedarDave]

Your a better man (or woman) than I to do all though caclulations!

[phillyfanatic]

Fence yes, but I suggest we bring home some troops from Germany and other European outlets since they hate us too and we could use them to man our own borders. Oh the humanity as the liberals wail over that one.

[conservative in nyc]

Are the 3.68 millions votes from areas won by Calderon?

We have no idea. Calderon's party claims the PRD is deliberately dragging out the results in PAN-friendly areas so that Obrador's lead looks bigger than it actually was.

The closing gap suggests that more of the results are coming from PAN-friendly areas than PRD-friendly ones. I don't know whether it will be enough, though.

Tradesports is getting antsy.

[jveritas]

In this case the Calderon margin should be at least 13% over the Communist guy in the remaining 3.68 millions votes so Calderon would win.

[Heartofsong83]

It's closing some more again!

We need to get it below 1% before 92% reporting unless the strongholds are saved for the end...

[A CA Guy]

Seems there could be more manipulation the second time around and I would be more queasy regarding Mexico of the recount.
In Florida, look at all the trouble we had with people who were recounting that were messing with the original ballots?
Who best serves the drug lords? That would be who has the criminal element working against them.

[CedarDave]

91.56%, Obragore by 1.08%

[Heartofsong83]

91.56% reporting - lead now 1.08%

[hispanarepublicana]

Right about now, I would hate to be one of those retired Americans who "own" a place at San Miguel de Allende.

[BunnySlippers]

... a lot of ground to cover ...

[Becki]

The closing gap suggests that more of the results are coming from PAN-friendly areas than PRD-friendly ones. I don't know whether it will be enough, though

What about the absentee ballots? Those supposedly when overwhelmingly for Calderon. Have those been counted yet?

Becki

[GOP]

I just got caught up reading this thread. Will someone provide me with a link where everyone is getting their latest numbers?

[Humbug]

You can go here: http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/noticias.html