Merkel Ahead of Schröder, but Who Will Govern Germany?

Der Spiegel ^ | 2005-09-18

[Lessismore]

Election forecasts based on initial German vote counts indicate that Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats have edged out Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's Social Democrats. Both parties, however, have done worse than in 2002. The question as to who will govern Germany remains open.

One thing is clear. The German voters no longer want a governing coalition pairing Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's Social Democrats (SPD) and Joschka Fischer's Greens. Forecasts based on initial results by the public television station ARD indicate that Schröder's SPD received just 34 percent of the vote -- 4.5 percentage points lower than the last elections in 2002.

Yet while few expected the SPD to do well, the results delivered by the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU) under Angela Merkel seem set to be much lower than the party had hoped. ARD forecasts indicate that Merkel's party just barely managed to edge out the SPD, receiving just 35.2 percent of the vote and thus 3.3 percent less than in 2002.

In other words, despite months of surveys indicating that Merkel would become Germany's first-ever woman chancellor, her path may not be as clear cut as she had hoped. Merkel had hoped to be able to form a coalition with the business-friendly Free Democratic Party (FDP) under Guido Westerwelle. Despite the FDP's surprising result of 10.2 percent -- against just 7.4 percent in 2002 elections -- the two parties together are far from the 50 percent they would need to form a governing coalition.

The Green Party under Joschka Fischer looks to have received 8.2 percent of the vote (0.4 percent lower than in 2002) and the newly-formed Left Party under Gregor Gysi and Oskar Lafontaine will become the fifth party in the Bundestag, Germany's parliament, with 8.4 percent of the vote according to forecasts.

Even worse for Merkel's CDU, her party looks to have received its third-worst result in its history and is far behind even its less-than-impressive 38.5 percent in the 2002 elections. Now, Merkel must start the process of casting about for coalition partners. On Sunday evening, she said she would begin talks with all of the major parties except for the Left Party.

One of the most obvious possibilities would be the forming of a so-called grand coalition -- a government created by pairing Germany's two largest parties, the CDU and the SPD. Such a pairing would be Germany's first grand coalition since 1966 to 1969. Given the fact that both parties are well below their 2002 results -- the SPD received 38.5 percent in the last election -- it would also be a coalition of the losers.

Indeed, despite leading a party with the best results on Sunday, it isn't even clear that Angela Merkel will become chancellor. Social Democrat party leader Franz Müntefering on Sunday claimed that the election results show that German voters want Schröder to continue as chancellor. Despite the seeming absurdity of the statement, mathematically at least, Schröder's SPD could form a coalition government with the Green Party and the Left Party. The SPD and the Greens, however, have both said they would not consider governing with the Left Party.

The other possibility which could be enough put Schröder back in the chancellery would be a so-called stoplight coalition -- a partnership of the SPD (red), the Greens and the FDP (yellow.) While such a coalition has formed governments in some of Germany's states in the past, FDP head Westerwelle said on Sunday that he would not be available for such a "stoplight" grouping. "We will continue to clearly pursue our course," said Westerwelle. "If there aren't enough votes for Black-Yellow (CDU-FDP) then we'll be in the opposition."

A combination of the CDU, FDP and Greens would also be enough for a parliamentary majority but is considered highly unlikely.

[Lessismore]

Black - yellow - green?

[raybbr]

Wie sagen sie "Quagmire" auf Deutsch?

[FairOpinion]

This is an excellent article, gives us an idea of the actual situation and what the various parties are. Thanks for posting it.

[Brilliant]

"Merkel Ahead of Schröder, but Who Will Govern Germany?"

You mean the winner doesn't govern in Germany? This ought to be interesting, considering the ridicule the Germans directed at the US after the 2000 election.

[Lessismore]

Since both the major parties are down a few percent, it would seem that there is a possible "throw the bums out" sentiment.

[ncountylee]

We should close the bases and pull our troops (except the cemeteries).

[Brilliant]

No. Gotta remember why the troops are there to begin with.

[Lessismore]

It could happen here. The thing that mainly prevents it is that most states have a "winner takes all" approach to electing electors to the Electoral College. This makes it hard for additional parties (and we are talking 5 parties in the German election) to win enough electors to prevent either of the two major parties from securing 50% of the electoral vote.

[Einigkeit_Recht_Freiheit]

"Schlammpfütze"

or "Sumpf" which is actually closer to "swamp"

[nathanbedford]

Right now, and now is too early to see clearly, the odds favor Schröder being able to form a majority coalition. His options include:1) the FDP 2) a grand coalition with Merkel's party 3) a deal with the communists under Lafontaine.

Merkel's options: 1) grand coalition 2) a deal with the Greens.

Right now it is a real Mexican standoff. But I believe either the FDP will break for Schröder (because he promises to accelerate reforms to suit them, knowing that he has already lost his extreme lefties to Lafontaine, and calculating he can hold the Greens) or, much more likely, Schröder breaks toward the communists.

A grand coalition would be a wretched result, condemning Germany to an economic slough of despond without the Left getting the blame it deserves. I would rather see the CDU and the FDP go into opposition and pick up the pieces in about 2 years.

[Einigkeit_Recht_Freiheit]

Immediately following the election they had all of the heads of the main parties on an "Elfantenkreis" or "meeting of the elephants" on ZDF (2nd German TV station).

Schröder was an arrogant and obnoxious idiot. The others were all noticeably tired, and still stating their platitudes, but as the hour wore on it seemed to be clear that he most likely scnario is, as Lessimore wrote, Black, Yellow, Green.

Fischer is such an egomaniac that he doesnt want to be out of power. If they let him stay foreign minister it is possible that he will allow the Black Yellow coalition to actually govern save for lessoning environmental topics.

That is the best we will get and it is sensible. The greens have no business talking about social policy. They are an environmental movement. Perhaps an agreement can be reached and that seemed to be what Fischer was hinting at.

[muir_redwoods]

"Wie sagen sie "Quagmire" auf Deutsch?"

Stalingrad

[Voltage]

They may need to ramp up their wheelbarrow industry. To carry a billion euros for a loaf of bread. I have stamps from an earlier era in Germany, which were overprinted as one million marks, enough to mail a letter.

They love socialism too much, they are not ready for the medicine to save themselves...yet!

[Lessismore]

Even though it was said to be unlikely, I think you may be right about Fischer. And maybe he will convince his party that they can achieve more aims in government than outside it, particularly since they have actually lost some seats. Of all the parties, the Greens seem to have most to lose by perpetuating a crises.

On the other hand, it will test Merkel's negotiating skills to strike the deal with both Green and Yellow.

[jveritas]

That is the problem when you have so many parties, not a clear winner and hence coalitions of the minorities, and this will always lead to weak governing.

[schaketo]

Gerhard Schröder = Al Gore

[Lessismore]

In another story it is reported that Guido Westerwelle has promised the Foreign Minister position to his rival in the FDP, Wolfgang Gerhardt.

So this may be a problem if Joschka Fischer wants to stay on as Foreign Minister.

[WOSG]

Yeah, but the Greens are really another version of a left-wing party. More to the left than the SPD.

It's hard to see Germany really improve with the Greens in the Government.

[2 Kool 2 Be 4-Gotten]

Looks like it will be some good old fashion horse trading - throw 'em all in a room and see who comes out standing. If Merker can pull it off that will speak volumes about her abilities it would seem to me. Is there a deadline by which they have to form a government?

[FairOpinion]

Maybe they can create a new position: Environment Minister for Fischer, that should make him happy.

And give him enough money so he can do lots of studies, studying the problem.