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I think the oil we've gotten till now will be thought of as very inexpensive by our descendants. We should drain the arabs oil before it becomes worth even more. What we don't want is the arabs being the only exporters at the high price end of the oil as energy market.

The problem with your argument is one that environmentalists consistently make. At some point, without government interference, we will no longer use oil to power our vehicles. Technology will progress, and some smart inventors and businessmen will find something better.

This will happen long before the notion of running out of oil will even be a serious concern.

As that point oil will become worthless. Well, ok, that isn't exactly true, as oil has other uses to, but the notion of hording supplies to overpay an Arabic monopoly so we have some large reserve will seem as silly as the notion of hording whales for their oil...

Artificially restricting supplies only serves to raise prices and gouge the consumer. Just ask De Beers.

Oil is a great energy source for vehicles. I can safely say we won't stop using it for fuel untill it's too expensive to use as fuel. At that point it's price may stop raising but if it falls we will start burning it again. Oil is energy dense and relatively easy to turn into work.

Your point about envirowhackos predicting the sky was falling over and over misses the point.

Today it's the oil industry telling us this is the most they will be able to produce (more or less). You do understand the difference? People spend years in school learning the big money skills needed to pump oil profitably. They are the ones we are listening to. Not some smelly hippys claiming the sky is falling. Petrolium engineers saying the obvious; that future oil will cost more and be harder to find.

The only people I know that claim oil is near infinite still admit we will have to drill deeper to get it. Costs per barrel will continue to climb. Nobody is predicting declines in energy use.

In any case my opionion is that before oil as a technology is replaced, it will be at scarcity pricing levels. When this happens I want the arab reserves largely drained as money in their hands can only lead to bad things.

As I understand it the arab states need to pump at near capacity to keep up their debt service. To reiterate GOOD, pump them dry before it becomes too profitable for them again.

Leaving a domestic reserve is more a contingency for war etc. Even as an investment though it's not a horrible bet.

Find me someone that sells oil futures more then a few years out. In the short term its all about speculation.