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So are you sure the headline is from 2005? I distinctly remember hearing this in 1995, and for that matter, 1985. Further I have the distinct impression one could dig up a similar analysis from 1975, and if one had particular ability to research disproven ancient environmental scare mongering without falling asleep, perhaps even 1965.

When ever you see a headline about a near term crisis and then you realize that the solution is one of the ideas from the elite left, re read Thomas Sowell's "The Vision of the Annoited Ones". It could well be that the left is harping on this so that more tax funding will go to solar, hybreds, electric cars, just about every alternative but nuclear. My belief is that the "experts" who believe oil production has peaked are similar to "experts" who sell gold as an investment. They could be right, but have not been right more often than coincidence.

I would suggest instead that many discovered but not yet opened oil fields will lead to more production whenever the Saudis wish oil prices to drop. They will wish this if we get too far along on alternative oil/energy programs. When the oil price drops, those alternative investments will be abandoned and left to rust until oil goes up again.

Peak oil could be the cause, but the Saudis playing with oil production could also be the cause. Who would you bet on, the Saudies? or unnamed "experts"?

swilhelm:

You're right. I remember reading this exact same prediction back when I was in highschool in the early 70's. Any energy problems experienced in this country can be traced to politics and not the ability of the markets to supply it.

"if one had particular ability to research disproven ancient environmental scare mongering without falling asleep, perhaps even 1965.

The first alarms that we were running out of oil came in the late 1800s. They were probably right based on the locations and depths at which they expected to find oil [at the time of the earliest alarms Texas wasn't a significant oil producer.]

Fast forward a hundred years. We are a hundred years downstream in terms of production. We think we know that oil really doesn't exist much below 15,000 feet underground [it apparently will cook down to methane.]

Hubbert's prediction held.

Rising prices did not cause U.S. domestic production to rise.

We have punched holes in most of the most likely places with reasonable drilling conditions. We have moved on and drilled the North Sea, parts of the Barents Sea [no joy] the waters off the Canadian Maritime Provinces [limited joy] where the conditions for drilling are very severe. With the exception of parts of the Arctic, Siberia,selected locations in the Middle East, and extreme deep water we have looked at almost everything that promises to produce a potential "elephant" size oilfield.

The question you should ask yourself is whether you want to believe at least some elements of the peak oil crowd, or the Saudi "Royal" Family when they ask you to trust them?

It's the same old running out of oil line from the same old crowd. How come these guys sidestep natural gas?

Another question. Since it's creation what has the federal bureaucracy, The U.S. Department of Energy really done for the American people in terms of developing oil reserves within U.S. territory?

(BBC-News)With an estimated 65% of proven global oil reserves the world relies on the Middle East for its oil. The US imports about 25% of its oil from the region, while the Asia Pacific region derives 67% of its supplies from the Middle East, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

One other point, there would be a lot more crude oil flowing out of Iraq, if OPEC Iran's mullahs would stop sending their goons into Iraq to keep the Iraqi oil infrastructure in disarray. Solution, overthrow the mullah régime in Tehran.