U.S. expected to OK arms sales to India, Pakistan

The Dallas Morning News/Timesleader.com ^ | Fri, Mar. 11, 2005 | Richard Whittle and Katie Fairbank

[Righty_McRight]

WASHINGTON - (KRT) - The Bush administration is expected to dramatically shift U.S. policy toward nuclear rivals India and Pakistan by approving F-16 fighter plane sales for each, industry officials said Friday.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will visit both nations next week as part of a six-country Asian tour and may confirm the sea change in U.S. arms sale policy during her visits, said an industry official who spoke on condition of anonymity.

India, which since the 1960s has refused to buy U.S. arms because of periodic sanctions that interrupted supplies, is soliciting bids for a purchase of 126 multirole fighter planes - a program estimated to be worth $7 billion to $9 billion.

Lockheed Martin Corp., which builds the F-16 in Fort Worth, Texas, won State Department approval in November to give India information on the plane.

Rice may use her visit to tell Indian officials that an F-16 sale will be approved if India chooses the plane, an industry official said.

Pakistan has been frustrated for years in its desire to buy new F-16s for its air force, which already has 32 older model F-16As and F-16Bs.

Congress canceled a sale of about two dozen F-16s to Pakistan in 1990 because of Islamabad's pursuit of nuclear weapons.

Pakistani officials hope Rice will confirm approval of their request to purchase 18 new F-16Cs and F-16Ds along with "mid-life update kits" to modernize their older models, the industry official said.

State Department spokeswoman Nancy Beck declined to comment.

Until terms of a sale are reached, Lockheed can't estimate how many jobs might be created in Fort Worth from such a sale.

Lockheed Martin spokeswoman Mary Jo Polidore said, "The potential sale of F-16s is a matter to be addressed by the United States Government with those countries. As usual, we stand ready to support the U.S. government's direction."

The Pakistan Times, quoting "diplomatic sources," reported from Islamabad on Friday that Rice was expected to "make an important announcement" there expressing a U.S. "willingness to resume the supply of F-16 fighter planes to Pakistan."

Policy analysts said any such arms deals likely would spark heated debate in Congress, but they saw little likelihood that sales to either country would be blocked.

Tight sanctions on selling arms to Pakistan or India were triggered when both countries tested nuclear devices in 1998, but the strictures have been eased in the intervening years.

"In Congress, the India lobby will say that Pakistan deserves nothing," said Stephen P. Cohen, a South Asia expert at the Brookings Institution. "The liberal arms controllers will say we're just fueling both sides of an arms race. But there aren't that many arms controllers in Congress anymore."

Husain Haqqani, a South Asia scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said, "By and large, Congress follows what the administration recommends in such matters" but "not without a fight."

"There will probably be a fight and the administration will probably win it," he said.

If India and Pakistan both buy the F-16, it would be good news for Lockheed's Fort Worth plant. But how good would depend on how a potential India contract was structured.

India wants to buy only 18 planes directly from the manufacturer. New Delhi proposes to get the other 108 in the 126-plane package by building them in India under license.

Structuring a deal that way would reduce the amount of work for Fort Worth, though a number of workers would be needed to put together parts kits for Indian workers to use in building the aircraft.

"It's like assembling a model kit for them, and the actual model kit is where the money is," aerospace industry analyst Richard Aboulafia of the Teal Group said.

Rice is to visit India and Pakistan as part of a March 14-21 trip that will include stops in Afghanistan, Japan, South Korea and China as well - her first Asian tour as secretary of state.

Such major arms sales would open a new chapter in U.S. relations with India - long a leader of the non-aligned movement - and indelibly mark the end of American efforts to use sanctions as a means of trying to curb India's and Pakistan's development of nuclear weapons.

Mostly Hindu India and mostly Muslim Pakistan have fought three wars since they were created by the British partition of colonial India in 1947 and have come close to armed conflict several other times.

India has traditionally bought most of its weaponry from Russia, and the Russian-made MiG-29M is one of the planes New Delhi is considering for the multirole fighter deal. Other planes under consideration are Sweden's Saab Gripen and France's Dassault Mirage 2000-5.

The administration has been fostering better relations with India since President Bush's first term, seeing the South Asian giant as a key potential ally.

U.S. relations with Pakistan have warmed steadily because of the staunch backing of its president, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, for the war on terrorism. The administration has approved $1.2 billion in other weapon sales to the country so far this year.

Haqqani, a former adviser to Musharraf's predecessors as leader of Pakistan, predicted that F-16 sales to Pakistan would anger many Indians and F-16 sales to India would stir anti-American sentiment in Pakistan.

"I think Indian public opinion always takes Pakistan receiving military assistance from the United States negatively," he said.

Aerospace analyst Aboulafia said of the expected sale to Pakistan: "India is disturbed by this possibility, and the Indian newspapers are full of editorials fretting over the prospect of a longstanding nemesis with real combat aircraft."

"Their (India's) program of buying second-rate Russian planes and inferior local fighters only makes sense if the neighbors don't have anything threatening," Aboulafia said. "If Pakistan gets F-16s, India has to get serious about its Air Force."

[Righty_McRight]

"Their (India's) program of buying second-rate Russian planes and inferior local fighters only makes sense if the neighbors don't have anything threatening," Aboulafia said. "If Pakistan gets F-16s, India has to get serious about its Air Force."

Sukhoi-30mki is gonna track down Aboulafia. haha

[Righty_McRight]

PING

[Dr. Marten]

Why in the hell does the US sell arms to other countries? Are we not just feeding the wolf?

[Moorings]

Sukhoi-30mki is gonna track down Aboulafia. LOL.

[Moorings]

The Pakistan Times, quoting "diplomatic sources," reported from Islamabad on Friday that Rice was expected to "make an important announcement" there expressing a U.S. "willingness to resume the supply of F-16 fighter planes to Pakistan."

Great, the Pakis are getting new toys. I bet they have already begun planning their next great military adventure against India.

They are going to have their a$$ handed back to them in a sling all over again.

[CarrotAndStick]

Mostly Hindu India and mostly Muslim Pakistan have fought three wars since they were created by the British partition of colonial India in 1947 and have come close to armed conflict several other times.

This is where the author of this piece is trying a sleight-of-hand trick. India, though mostly Hindu, is a liberal, secular democracy. Pakistan is its ante-thesis.

[Righty_McRight]

Pakistan acquiring new fighter jets By UNITED PRESS INTERNATIONAL Published March 9, 2005 ISLAMABAD, Pakistan -- Pakistan is set to induct by June next year the first squadron of supersonic fighter planes it made jointly with China, officials said.

Pakistan began to work on the state-of-the-art JF-17 Thunder along with China in the early 1990s, when the United States banned arms supplies to Islamabad following a difference over its nuclear program.

Pakistani defense officials told United Press International the first batch of six planes would be handed over to the Pakistan Air Force by June 2006.

Eventually, the air force will have 150 F-17 jet fighters, the officials said, but did not elaborate how long it would take to acquire all the planes.

The first test flight of the supersonic jet was successfully conducted in September 2003 in China. The prototype is expected to be finished within a couple of months.

The planes have been equipped with latest avionics, which are also developed jointly by China and Pakistan. China Air Force is likely to induct more than 500 JF-17 fighter planes in the future.



How good is this plane?

[dog breath]

This is a serious upgrade for Pakistan's air force. I guess this is part of the reward for playing ball with the Bush administration.

[sukhoi-30mki]

The JF-17 is otherwise known as the FC-1.It's a majority Chinese development,though the PLAAF itself won't buy it.It's specs look like it's a heavily built up Mig-21 with the engines of a Mig-29 & more guided munitions.

[Oztrich Boy]

Why in the hell does the US sell arms to other countries? Are we not just feeding the wolf?

Ah good Ole America First plaint A. Sharing bandwidth with:
"Why do other countries build their own weapons (or buy them from the French - or Russians)? Why can't they just buy good ole US products?"

[sukhoi-30mki]

Abou Lafia is parroting the same old lines you hear from out of work ossified coldwar "analysts".Just because Pakistan get's the F-16, it won't make a big difference.For one,they needn't get the AMRAAM,PGMs,the new AESA radars or AEW aircraft.That will put their fleet of F-16s pretty much in the same league as their existing fleet of 30 odd F-16 Blk 20s.Just because a nation buys American stuff doesn't make the whole range of subsystems available for it.Especially if you are Pakistan,where the number sought will be low,who will also need assistance from American military aid & which is politically unstable.The number mentioned here is only 18-what does LM stand to gain from it???


Poor Abou Lafia seems to forget that as of now India's Su-30s,Mirage-2000s & Mig-29s are all far better than Pakistan's current fleet of F-16s.If India's Mig-29s were so inferior,why did Pakistani F-16s run away at the first squeak of the plane arming it's AA-10 missiles??Heck,even India's upgraded Mig-21s carry the AA-11 & AA-12 missiles,far better than the old Aim-9s & Aim-7 Sparrows of the PAF.

Coming to the IAF itself,if India does buy the F-16,it will probably be the biggest single largest deal ever(after Iran's aborted deal of the late 70s).& Given the fact that the number is huge,India will probably have greater flexibility on choosing or getting subsystems from Uncle Sam,including possible subcontracts to Israeli or British firms.Besides buying the Mig-29M2,equipped with Israeli or European avionics wouldn't be such a bad idea.The French Mirage-2005 is still the frontrunner, with French companies showing lots of flexibility on transfer of technology & license manufacturing,along with work on other army & navy projects.

PS-Abou Lafia's nationality is either Pakistani or Arab-ENUF SAID!!!

[sukhoi-30mki]

Ive heard "E-rumours" that the Indian airforce had changed or wants to change the parameters of this current fighter programme to consider only 2-engined jets.I don't know how true that was,but if there is any basis in it,the Gripen & F-16 & Mirage-2005 will drop out,while the French Rafale,along with the the multi-nation Eurofighter will hop in.The Brits have already offered the EF-2000 to India.

[sukhoi-30mki]

Oops!!!Abulafia ain't Paki or Arab-he's Richard Aboulafia,an analyst at Teal Group.Can't these guys get more sensible sounding names???????

http://www.richardaboulafia.com/

PS-A casual look at his work seems to confirm that he belongs to the Coldwar Genre of experts who see things in pure black & white-so I wouldn't take him too seriously.

[Dr. Marten]

Say huh?

[Gengis Khan]

Actually India wont mind Pakistan getting the F-16s if the US is ready to sell India JSF F-35 (along with PACS-3 and ARROW ). That way the US can sell to both India and Pakistan and so the American companies are happy. Pakistan get the F-16s so Pakistan is happy. And India will dominated the air-warfare against Pakistan and China with the F-35s and so India will be happy. In any case if Pakistan gets the F-16s then the F-16 are out of the race as far as India is concerned considering the fact that the other compititors are the Typhoon Eurofighter 2000 and the French Rafale.

[thrust]

What North Korea and Iran are to the United states,Pakistan is to India.So its but obvious India wouldn't like the pakis getting any military hardware from the USA.
The F-16's are nuke delivery systems which is the major concern .It is a fact that the pakis r gonna use them against India whreas India needs to buy stuff as a deterrent to China.

The IAF need not worry abt the JF-17's .They have chinese avionics!!

[sukhoi-30mki]

Well,we're not sure on the Pakistani FC-1's avionics fit.They have been actively looking at Italian & French systems & the radar system is likely to be the Italian Grifo S-7.Besides,if China plans to export this fighter to others,European avionics fits are a certainity esp as the EU will soon lift it's arms ban.

[thrust]

well it would be difficult for them to integrate italian ,french and other european systems into a chinese aircraft.COst is another factor.We'll probably wait and see what they do but what i feel is that this aircraft is being purchase by pakis for the foll. reasons:-

1]BVR capability
2]No other option available hence china as the last option to buy aircraft
3]Really REally cheap

J-10 will be a better aircraft than JF-17.
JF-17 was primarily built by the chinese for export to third world countries like pak,bangladesh etc.

And i wouldn't worry much abt chinese made stuff.Not reliable at all!!!

[sukhoi-30mki]

Nope,Chinese & Russian jets have easily integrated European & Israeli electronic systems.Take a look at India's upgraded Mig-21s.The Chinese F-7(Mig-21 copy) & J-8 fighters both got avionics from the Brits,Israelis,French during the 80s.There was also a proposal to upgrade their J-8s with American avionics but Tianammen put an end to it.Besides,the FC-1 being a more modern design will obviously be able to accomodate & upgrade new systems.

[HarleyLady27]

Didn't we give Iraq arms??? Just to back in and take them back??? What is the 'meaning' for this??????? Stupid, Stupid, Stupid