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To: Judith Anne

I suppose the computer models which predict all the scary scenarios are making an assumption that CO2 emissions in the future will be not only increasing arithmetically, but multiplying over the years.

If so, that is probably not the case, as emissions in the US, for instance, have apparently already plateaued.


33 posted on 01/24/2005 6:27:15 AM PST by Sam Cree (Democrats are herd animals)
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To: Sam Cree

I can't remember the exact figures, and I've returned the book, but the computer models quoted and footnoted in the book have been politicized also. The actual prediction of warming which can be attributed to total worldwide CO2 emissions was on the order of 0.023 PERCENT, which is like 23 one- thousandth of a degree, if I have my math right.

Global warming is probably (not certainly) occurring because of natural cycles in the sun's energy output. There was, if I recall the book correctly, a "Little Ice Age" from something like 1300s to 1600s. The normal cycle of earth includes lengthy world-wide ice ages interspersed with warming periods, and the energy forces involved are so large as to be completely unaffected by any small variations in human CO2 emissions.

Many caveats in my post here because I can't refer back to the book. I'll buy it when it comes out in paperback, and then I can do more justice to Mr. Crichton's excellent essays, clearly outlined and footnoted, in the book.


34 posted on 01/24/2005 6:42:37 AM PST by Judith Anne (Thank you St. Jude for favors granted.)
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