Gallup has Bush 271, Kerry 267...a Bush win.
Based on likely voters, not based on people who have voted early. Gallup is not reporting their early voters results.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/usatodaypolls.htm
From Gallup:
1. (Asked of those who have not already voted) Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo as independent candidates. Would you vote for:
1-1. (Asked of those who already voted) Who did you vote for in the presidential election?
"^ Beginning with October 22-24 poll, those who indicated they had already voted were asked who they voted for rather than who they would for if the election were held today."
The numbers being reported are for question 1. They are not reporting Question 1-1.