Strait of Fire: How it could happen (fiction)

Asia Times On-Line ^ | 8/11/04 | Gary LaMoshi

[mondoman]

Welcome back to Asia Times On Air's special coverage of "Fire in the Strait". I'm Gary LaMoshi, in Hong Kong.

For those just joining us, here's what we know so far. At approximately 8am local time today, about three and a half hours ago, a tanker traveling through the Malacca Strait waterway carrying highly flammable liquefied natural gas, or LNG, slammed into a second tanker loaded with approximately 2 million barrels of crude oil docked at a refinery in Singapore.

Both ships burst into flames, now engulfing the refinery. There have been dozens of casualties among both crews of the two ships and refinery workers. Firefighters are now battling to contain the blaze within the refinery complex.

Singapore's outgoing Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong has declared a national state of emergency and placed armed forces on high alert. He has appealed for calm. At the same news conference at which Goh made his announcement, Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew warned Singaporeans "not to jump to conclusions about this tragedy before we know all the facts".

Singapore has declared a six-kilometer exclusion zone around the fire, which in effect closes down the Malacca Strait to all traffic. The exclusion zone includes Indonesian and Malaysian waters as well, but those two countries have made no formal announcements about the zone. An Indonesian naval spokesman reached in Jakarta told us by phone that all traffic is proceeding normally through its portion of the Strait.

So far, that's what we know. Now we'll go live to Crystal Lim, on the scene in Singapore, for the latest details. Crystal?

"Thanks, Gary. Authorities here are releasing some further information about the two tankers. The docked tanker, the SS Long Beach, belonged to the US firm Caltex and had docked only about 15 minutes before the collision. It was carrying a full load of crude oil from Iraq for processing at this giant refining plant. The second tanker, the Agung Jaya, belongs to Indonesian state oil company Pertamina. The LNG it was carrying was reportedly bound for China.

"Apparently, some crew members were rescued from the water and are being treated at local hospitals. But nothing they might have said about the incident has been released publicly."

Crystal, what kind of progress are firefighters making in battling the blaze?

"Well, Gary, we're in a special media area more than six kilometers from the perimeter of the refinery. But even from here we can clearly see the flames, and there's a huge cloud of black smoke surrounding the site. Authorities are calling it the worst fire in Singapore's history.

"The flames are as high as a 20-story building or more, and the black cloud is higher than that and spreading in all directions. Even here, several kilometers away, we can feel the heat and smell the smoke. I can also tell you that, in addition to the expected irritation in our eyes and throat, some of the media crews here are complaining of nausea and fever.

"There's a rumor floating around that a yellow cloud was seen over the ships immediately after the crash. It's only a rumor, but that's led to speculation that a biological or chemical agent may have been released in the crash."

Crystal, that report would point toward a terrorist attack, rather than a simple shipping accident, wouldn't it?

"Gary, as I said, it's only a rumor, and personally, I'm feeling fine. The firefighters are wearing full protective gear, for the heat anyway, and there don't appear to be any special measures being taken that would suggest anything other than a very serious fire.

"However, there are some other unusual things about the accident. Standard procedures are for only one tanker to offload at a time at this facility. Generally tankers wait in the harbor for their turn. We don't know whether the Agung Jaya was scheduled to stop at the refinery, but we do know it was not supposed to be approaching the dock when it did."

Interesting, Crystal. Can you tell us any more about the refinery and the area around it?

"Well, the refinery is part of a large complex that also includes petrochemical plants and other industrial facilities. It's also near the area where US military ships dock regularly on port visits. At the time of the accident, the aircraft carrier USS Enterprise was in port along with its flotilla of support ships. We're getting reports that the ships are preparing to leave or have left the port and returned to the sea lanes as a safety measure.

"That roar you hear overhead may be the tanker planes that Singapore's air force has deployed to fight the blaze. But, from what I can see, that one looks more like a fighter plane. That's unusual ..."

Thanks, Crystal. We'll be back to you for more in a few minutes. Stay safe, and drink lots of water. Now, with the latest on how this fire and its mysterious origins are impacting markets, let's go to our business editor Akiko Takanaka at the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Akiko?

"Hi, Gary. It's lunchtime in Tokyo, so it may look calm, but the operative word here is panic. The Nikkei 225 and the broader TOPIX index are down more than 7%. Stocks are retreating across the board here and across the region. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index is down almost 4%, Taiwan is off 7% and Seoul is down more than 11%. Rumors are spreading in South Korea and Tokyo that the American Central Intelligence Agency staged this incident to cut off oil supplies and cripple the economy.

"In Singapore, prices are off just 2%. Reportedly, Singapore's banks and the Finance Ministry's Temasek holding company, headed by incoming prime minister Lee Hsien Loong's wife, Ho Ching, are buying heavily. But oil futures are skyrocketing, moving toward $60 a barrel - US - on the back of rumors about what happened and fears that the fire may spread. Gary?"

Thanks, Akiko. What about currencies?

"As usual in times of crisis, the US dollar is strengthening at the expense of other currencies. Since OPEC sets oil prices in dollars, that means a double whammy for places like South Korea, which has to pay more dollars per barrel of oil while its currency, the won, buys fewer dollars. That could have a devastating impact ..."

Excuse me, Akiko. An unconfirmed report has just been handed to me from Reuters news agency of a hijacked tanker in the vicinity of the fire. Apparently, a crew member using a cell phone made a call to Malaysian police telling them that armed men had seized a supertanker carrying oil for French oil giant Elf Aquitaine. The crew member said that Malaysian authorities were pursuing the vessel but stopped when it entered Singapore's territorial waters. Malaysian and Singaporean authorities refused to comment, according to Reuters.

Again, this is simply an unconfirmed news report. But obviously, in the midst of the chaos surrounding this fire in Singapore, a hijacked tanker carrying 2 million barrels of oil could enormously complicate an already difficult situation in the Malacca Strait ...

[mondoman]

For those who have read Admiral Mahon's work on the importance of American and British Naval power, this is an interesting piece of fiction.

BTW, who would have imagined using commercial air liners as missiles on September 10, 2001?

[null and void]

Thank you for putting '(fiction)' in the thread title...

[mondoman]

I was unsure how to post this in the opinion section. There is an interesting news article that ran with this feature in AT today.

This (Malacca Straits) is a very real choke point in the world's shipping lanes as predicted over a 100 years ago by USN Admiral James Mahon. Much of modern naval theory is derived from his writings. Furthermore, the most populated Muslim countries surround this lawless region (piracy still exists in this region).

[null and void]

I think it's fine where it is. How about a link to the article? (assuming it's in English)

[mondoman]

Sorry, i should have looked up the correct spelling and bio for Admiral Mahan.

http://www.au.af.mil/au/aul/bibs/great/mahan.htm

[null and void]

Impressive!

[mondoman]

For more on Admiral Mahan

Today's frontpage of the Asia Times

[Valin]

From what I understand the terrorist are trying to do something (like this?) in this area. Unfortunately (for them) the governments of the area have been having a good deal of success in shutting them down, Malaysia and Singapore in particular.

[brothers4thID]

Thank you for bringing this to wider attention.

[BlazingArizona]

Singapore's outgoing Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong has declared a national state of emergency and placed armed forces on high alert. He has appealed for calm.

He just discovered that one of the fire crew was chewing gum!

[Montaignes Cat]

Let me add my thanks to you for posting this piece, and for the links to Admiral Mahan.

Wretchard at The Belmont Club was discussing Malacca in detail back in June. He made the points that some huge percentage of the world's oil passes through just 6 narrow choke-points, all easily attacked. In addition to Malacca, through which passes 11 million barrels per day, he also mentions: Bab el-Mandab between Eritrea and Yemen, Bosporus/Turkish Straits, Straits of Hormuz between Oman and Iran, Russian Oil and Gas Pipelines, and the Suez. Other points he makes: that the price of oil includes something like $8 per barrel security costs, that much of the security burden is being borne by American so-called "consultants" or mercs, and that without the U.S. Navy, oil could not be secured.

[mondoman]

Much of US Modern History as a world power stems from Mahan, and his influence on Naval Strategy and Teddy Roosevelt (the first Modern President). I remember learning about Admiral Mahan in High School. Mahan was founding Dean of the Naval War College. Mahan's position was that the US, and in conjunction with Britain, should be able to defend the critical narrows and sea lanes around the world:

Malacca Straits,
Straits of Hormuz
Horn of Africa
Isthmus of Panama
Cape Horn
Cape of Good Hope
Suez