After all, both raw intelligence and its interpretation are full of errors and uncertainties, and even disinformation. The President hears "There is a connection" from one advisor, "There's not a connection" from another advisor, and "We don't know" from a third advisor.
Maybe Pres. Bush is, very reasonably, unwilling to go out on a limb in such a situation.
I think you are right.
They don't even know who planned 09-11-01.