Posted on 03/15/2004 9:15:47 PM PST by Destro
C.I.A. Says Russia Could Try to Reassert Itself After a Putin Victory
By DOUGLAS JEHL
Published: March 14, 2004
WASHINGTON, March 13 — The Central Intelligence Agency is warning of a "greater assertiveness" on the part of Russia if President Vladimir V. Putin wins re-election as expected on Sunday.
A new C.I.A. assessment made public this week says that assertiveness by Russia is likely to be evident both at home and abroad, with its tough stance in the war on Chechnya unlikely to soften and with a more robust approach toward neighboring countries like Georgia and Ukraine backed up by the increasing stakes taken by Russian companies in those countries' energy industries.
The assessment says such assertiveness would be backed up by Russia's improving military capacities, but it describes the possible aims as "limited" and says Mr. Putin "has a stake in relative stability on Russia's borders."
The re-election of Mr. Putin to a second four-year term would be the culmination of a process that has recentralized power in the Kremlin, including a domination of Russian news organizations, according to the new assessment, which was presented on Capitol Hill this week. This "may bolster trends toward limits on civil society" and toward state interference in big business, the assessment said.
A second assessment, by the Defense Intelligence Agency, also presented to Congress, portrays Russia as "attempting to reclaim great power status" under Mr. Putin, in part through increased military activity and defense spending. It said that military exercises conducted by Russian ground forces in 2003 had been at a rate twice that of 2002.
George J. Tenet, the director of central intelligence, told the Senate Armed Services Committee that "on balance" Russia's relations with the United States were "more cooperative than not."
Still, Mr. Tenet said, "the coming year will present serious challenges."
"For example," he added, "Russia remains supportive of U.S. deployments in Central Asia for Afghanistan — but is also wary of the U.S. presence in what Russia considers to be its own backyard."
Mr. Tenet presented the assessment on Russia as part of his annual testimony on worldwide threats facing the United States. Its main focus was on security challenges posed by the insurgency in Iraq, terrorism and the proliferation of illicit weapons, which Mr. Tenet described as the top priorities of the intelligence agencies.
But the testimony, presented in a 24-page prepared statement and an extensive question-and-answer session, also touched at length on other concerns. Among them, Mr. Tenet mentioned an accelerating military buildup in China, which he called "our greatest concern" in that country; the possibility that Haiti's new interim government "will have trouble establishing order," and the fact that continued violence in Afghanistan would mean "considerable assistance over the next year or two to stabilize the security environment there."
On Russia, Mr. Tenet also said recent efforts by the Kremlin to strengthen its role in overseeing the oil sector of the economy "could discourage investors and hamper energy cooperation with the West." (GASP!!)
The C.I.A. assessment said Mr. Putin, a 51-year-old former spy chief who took power four years ago, had "brought a sense of stability to the Russian political scene after years of chaos" and had also "restored Russians' pride in their country's place in the world."
At the same time, Mr. Tenet told Congress that Russia had already become more assertive in its approach to neighboring states of the former Soviet Union. He said Russian companies, in a move consistent with the Kremlin's agenda, were increasing their stakes in those countries, particularly in energy industries.
"Russia is using primarily economic incentives and levers of `soft' power, like shared history and culture, to rebuild lost power and influence," the assessment said.
It also said the stability on Russia's borders was important "not least to maintain positive relations with the U.S. and Europeans."
So how do you say "Lithuania, Latvia, & Estonia: King me!" in Russian?
Give it a rest, Destro - Russia can't even hope to reclaim what it once had, never mind going on to greater things.
Get real. More like: we're playing chess reasonably well (albeit arguing about every little move amongst ourselves for hours), and Russia's got a chess strategy but they're still busy trying to get their chess set out of hock.
Meanwhile the CIA plays either see-no-evil or Keystone Kop with Islamofascists (i.e. sending Joe Wilson to "investigate" a uranium deal in Africa, refusing to connect perfectly logical dots regarding Saddam/AQ connections, and what about all those "known" WMD sites?, etc), and then for some reason warns us in dire terms about Russia's "tough stance" against the (Islamofascist-linked) bandit-terrorists of Chechnya & terrorist border havens in Georgia. Which side is the CIA on again?
China already owns Washington, D.C. - both parties in the House and Senate, and the Whitehouse.
I'd like to see Russia integrated with Europe - not in a 'Ha ha, someone else's flag is flying over the Kremlin now' way, but in a 'common laws allowing unimpeded flow of capital and goods' kind of way.
I'm just not thinking Putin shares my opinion about the way things ought to be - Russia needs a strong set of laws emplaced which would allow free enterprise and economic development, whereas Putin seems more interested in propagating his power.
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