Northam comes across as such a smarmy, snarky guy that Gillespie might get votes just for that. There’s still human nature.
We shall see... I believe this is a winnable race... just not convinced Gillespie will get the turnout he’s going to need... I will be happy to be wrong. I am not on the ground in VA, and have no insider information on this race..... I am only drawing conclusions from general macro observations.
This is really a generic R vs generic D race, neither candidate stands out, or offers anything distinct. So what you have is an open seat, with the D trying to hold onto the seat... The current sitting Governor is not that terribly popular, but not hated either... so this really is about as generic a race as you can find.
Given that, and the fact its off year, this would favor higher party out of power turnout in terms of voting percentages. NOVA also does not have a personal checkbook motivation to show up... as in the Presidential race, they were going to show up because if Trump won their personal incomes were at stake... the VA governors race doesn’t affect federal DC spending, so that area will almost certainly have lower turnout.
The question in my mind is, will the Dem turnout decrease enough and will the R turnout improve enough to overcome the delta? My gut says, that given the R’s have run a GOPe candidate, that he can’t rely on the drain the swap, disenfranchised, forgotten man, blue dog democrats, etc that Trump got motivated and to the polls to show up for him... and without them I am not sure he’ll get a 5.5% swing to pull off the win.
Is it possible? Yes, I do think its possible, I just am not personally convinced its the most likely outcome. I do believe he COULD win, this isn’t a race where I feel, there is no way the R could pull an upset, I just don’t think that’s the most likely outcome. I am more than happy to eat crow and be proven wrong, but I think this is a D hold, but by a 1-3% margin.
If the R were a drain the swamp, american first, candidate I would be more than confident and comfortable predicting an R win, but with an GOPe/McConnell/Open Border shill? I think its the less likely outcome. It is possible, and again I am happy to eat crow if I am wrong, and would loved to be proved wrong, but I am hard pressed to see it.
Time will tell.