Posted on 05/20/2016 11:42:17 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Bernie is going to win. The writing is on the wall that Hillary is most likely guilty of [at a minimum] unintentional espionage and probably much worse and it looks like an indictment at this point is imminent. There’s no doubt that the democratic establishment is also aware of this inevitability and is beginning to hedge their bets, albeit behind closed doors. It’s only a matter of time before the majority of the DNC begins to realize that Hillary is a liability to the party and once this tipping point occurs, establishment democrats will defect en masse like rats from a sinking ship. But that’s not why Bernie is going to win.
Superdelegates, which date back to centrist “Scoop” Jackson’s Coalition for a Democratic Majority in the early 1970s, were meant to be a safeguard mechanism and were installed after an extremely contentious Democratic Convention in 1980 between Ted Kennedy and Jimmy Carter. This heated contest split the democratic party and created a chasm between the two camps, quite probably cost the democrats the general election. “Scoop” was a conservative Democrat and the superdelegates function was to ensure the party had a viable candidate to compete against the republican nominee by steering the party away from progressive candidates and more towards moderates.
The true, original intention of superdelegates was to have safeguards in place to act in the best interest of the party and it’s becoming more and more clear that Hillary’s legal troubles are not going away. In the general election, Sanders crushes Trump in a head to head contest while Hillary struggles, especially in 3 key so-called battleground states....
(Excerpt) Read more at huffingtonpost.com ...
I agree. A lot of Bernie supporters will switch to Trump in the general because they want real fixes, not communist mumbo-jumbo.
I think you are right. During a primary candidates who are not seen as having a chance to win their own parties get a kind of generic "other member of the party without baggage" presumption in general election matchup polls. Kasich had it till the end. Cruz had it, and then lost it when it seemed he had a shot at beating Trump. If Bernie pulled off an upset win of his party's primary he would lose that "generic other Democrat" mantle and the crazy socialist would get crushed.
Biden/Warren 2016
I like your take on this......but! Hillary is so focused on being the first femal President, that she won’t quit even if they strap her in the electric chair and get ready to throw the switch.
Forget the super delegates.
Sanders is behind in the normal delegates.
If he can beat her there, the super delegates could switch to Sanders.
But Sanders needs to win 68% of the remaining delegates to come out ahead in the non-super delegate count.
Given the states are proportional, this means he has to get about 68% of the vote across the board.
That will be difficult.
I don't think so if it was post convention and Hillary had already won it.
If it was pre-conventionI, I think Bernie would need a majority of the delegates at the convention to vote for him. Seems to me he would be likely to get it, but it would not be automatic. Its theoretically possible I suppose that he would not be able to get a majority and that eventually another candidate would emerge...but I doubt that the party is suicidal enough to snub the Bernie voters like that, but then there was the railroading in the Nevada primary so maybe...
I think Sanders is going to try to argue that he has the momentum and that Clinton is self destructing and would lose the general in order to sway super delegates...even though I think he will remain behind in regular delegates.
The Democrats are stuck with Hillary. Why do people think she’ll just back away willingly. The Dems may have the goods on Hillary, but she has the goods on them too. It will be mutual destruction if Hillary is not accepting the nomination in Philadelphia in July.
Wow that was a pretty good mental image.
Yes. That makes sense.
He will win 5 of 6 on June 7.
But he will lose DC (the last) and New Jersey on June 7.
Clinton is winning due to black vote in states that won’t go for her in the general.
So Sanders has a good argument.
“Sanders crushes Trump”
He’s hoping the both wind up in jail. Hillary for something, and Bernie for inciting a riot at the convention.
I agree with yo0 on hilleries desire to be the first woman president but Hillary has never been a fool and she will quite but only because she knows that if she does not she will die in prison.
Wouldn’t be a HOOT if the Dems are the ones who have a brokered convention?
Hillary is destroying the Democrat Party.
This is the best year I’ve had since I was a kid!
Hillary is harassing Bernie into quitting. He ought to reply, tongue slightly in cheek, by graciously offering her the VP slot.
Bernie isn’t going to win because Hillary isn’t going to be indicted or accused of anything!
Bruthas ain't votin' fo' no Joos neither.
There will be no indictment unless the powers that be determine that she can’t beat Trump.
Auslander’s Axiom:
The lower her polling the greater her chance of indictment.
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