In your scenario, A is Trump and B is Cruz. The flaw for me is that the poll predictions of what will happen in November do not necessarily reflect what will happen. The track record of previous predictions of this nature prove them unreliable.
The disapproval rating is a more reliable indicator of future performance. Overcoming high disapproval is far more difficult than overcoming low approval. The former indicates that voters are familiar with that candidate and have already formed an opinion while the latter indicates an unfamiliarity with that candidate. Historically, candidates with such high disapproval lose general elections.
2016 is a golden opportunity for the GOP because Hillary Clinton carries such a high disapproval rating into the election. Yet the Stupid Party is poised to match her up with someone even higher.
Hoodat wrote: “2016 is a golden opportunity for the GOP because Hillary Clinton carries such a high disapproval rating into the election. Yet the Stupid Party is poised to match her up with someone even higher.”
I disagree. The GOP isn’t poised to match someone with high disapproval ratings against Hillary. The GOP voters are.
The exit polls are so revealing. I’ve seen where only 12% of those polled considered ability to win as important in their choice. “Telling it like it is” rated much higher. Why?
Very much like in the Clinton years. I would ask liberals why they would support a person with Clinton’s penchant for telling lies? They would respond that “they liked what he said”. Really, you support someone who because of what he says even when you know he doesn’t mean it?