According to Freakanomics, the better the polls are, the more it drives donations, demoralized the adversaries, energizes the base, and dries up the adversary’s support.
I do get tired of Polls-as-News, though.
Nate Silver is in for a big surprise this time around. The old methods of predicting outcomes hold no water. Trump is going to win. Nate may be the last one to figure this out, but figure it out one day he will. And that day can’t come soon enough. Trump 2016!
And at some point it produces a "tipping point" and a "Preference cascade."
Yup. The whole thing has synergistic feedback working for it. It's very nonlinear.
I do get tired of Polls-as-News, though.
Me too. I personally think Cruz is doing pretty good behind the scenes, and I think he may end up pulling an upset.
At this point I could live with Trump, Carson, or Cruz, though my favorite is Cruz.