I thought Tim Pawlenty made a terrible mistake dropping out of the 2012 race when he did.
Sure he was stuck at 3% in the polls, but what does that matter? He was a credible alternative to Mitt Romney and a credible candidate for the general election. Romney was the Front Runner with about 30% in the polls, with a bunch of guys beating their brains out trying to move their numbers up from 7% to 8%.
The way to win in that situation is to stay on the stage. In 2012, the Republican primary vote could be thought of as 30% Romney and 70% Not Romney. When it all shakes out, and all of the Not Romneys but one drop out, sure Romney would have picked up a few of the Not Romneys, but most of them would have fallen to the Credible Alternative. Tim Pawlenty is the very embodiment of the Credible Alternative.
Scott Walker is not ideal for this role. He is not simply a Credible Alternative. He is a polarizing figure in his own right. Not all of the Not Trump voters will necessarily like Scott Walker. And if he keeps yelping every time his major donors tug on his leash, like he did on Birthright Citizenship, he is going to lose a lot of his credibility.
Right now, I would say that John Kasich is better positioned to be the Credible Alternative to Donald Trump. If I were Kasich, I would simply stop reading the polls, stay on message, and stay on the stage. I would not spend one thin dime on advertising buys to try to move my number from 4% to 4.5%. The only poll that matters is the one that happens in a voting booth.
Kasich (or Walker, perhaps) has to play for the day when Donald Trump falters. Then he wants to be standing there, having done nothing to embarrass himself, as the calm, sober figure that appeals to core Republican voters. Kasich should be working on correcting his positions and aligning himself with the base, and setting himself up for that day.
And that day may never come. If Trump never falters, then it is all a moot point. But the only plausible path that leads to a Kasich (or Walker, perhaps) victory, is to play for Trump to stumble, and for all of the other Not Trumps to drop out.
This same pattern plays itself out every four years. But it is doubly so in 2015, when the Silly Season has been way sillier than usual.
I’m not sure we are in a silly season at all. This election cycle is different than any we have ever seen. Kasich is my governor, and while he has done some good tings for Ohio, he truly is a dyed in the wool RINO on most issues.
I’m not sure we are in a silly season at all. This election cycle is different than any we have ever seen. Kasich is my governor, and while he has done some good tings for Ohio, he truly is a dyed in the wool RINO on most issues.
Ted Kennedy was the Front Runner, and there were a lot of guys in the weeds. One of those guys was Jimmy Carter.
Kennedy was running strong, in the 30% - 40% range, but there were a huge number of Democrats, maybe most, who were just not willing to vote for the guy. Chappaquiddick, and what-not.
The minor candidates were unable to get any traction, and they dropped out, one by one. But Jimmy Carter just kept plugging away, running a low-cost campaign on a shoestring. Going door-to-door with his line "Hi! My name is Jimmy Carter, and I'm running for President!"
And we all remember how that one came out. Kennedy hit his ceiling, and when no other alternatives were available, Jimmy Carter rocketed ahead in the polls. It was simple math. Jimmy Carter was the last Not Ted Kennedy standing, and he went on to thump Gerald Ford in the General Election and become President of the United States, all because he was willing to stick with it, and knock on doors through the cold Winter of 1975/1976.