[SoConPubbie]

Getting 40% is still a losing position.

Wrong, false premise.

If he gets somewhere between 40% and 50% of Hispanics in the primaries along with most of the Tea-Party, and most of the social conservative, and military conservatives, and fiscal conservatives, and yes there are overlaps among those six groups, he has a good shot at winning.

[kabar]

He is not going to get 40% to 50% from Hispanics nationwide. Reps always lose when they try to play identity politics.

The conservative vote is going to be split among Cruz, Walker, and Carson in the primaries. Paul will take the libertarians and Bush and Rubio will split the Moderate read RINO vote. Christie could help splinter the RINO vote further if he enters. McCain never got more than 30% in the primaries and still won. Hopefully, the conservatives can settle on one candidate to back as early in the process as possible.