It’s like horse race handicapping. First you look for reasons why a horse probably won’t win. Out classed? Out Paced? Not enough stamina? Doesn’t do well on the Turf? I’m not assigning any of those probabilities to Cruz, just using them as an example.
Then, you have 3 categories, Those that probably can’t win, those that can win but probably won’t and those that have a good shot at winning.
Now, ask yourself. If I wanted to bet $1000 on Ted Cruz to win the Election - what odds do I wan’t? 6-1? 2-1? 5-4? 11-9? 15-1?
Me, I would want 30-1. Then I could in good conscious make that bet.
Likewise I would take my $2 to your $3 that Hillary won’t run. Hillary has health issues and I believe they’ll become apparent in her primaries if she actually has to run and debate somebody.
“Likewise I would take my $2 to your $3 that Hillary won’t run. Hillary has health issues and I believe they’ll become apparent in her primaries if she actually has to run and debate somebody.”
Not only won’t I take that bet, I will go so far as saying she won’t run because she wants to spend more time with her grandchild and helping Chelsea run the Clinton Foundation.