Posted on 09/26/2014 12:22:22 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Probably not fatal to the GOPs hopes of retaking this seat, but not helpful either.
Per Becket Adams, since when do tea partiers describe rich people as the one percent?
[Palin] is slated to appear at a Saturday event organized around [Rob] Manesss #OneofUs campaign, a campaign intended to frame the candidate as an average Louisianan in contrast to the GOP front-runner in the race, Rep. Bill Cassidy, and Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.), both of whom Maness has characterized as out-of-touch Washington elites.
If you could sum up this campaign, its two of them vs. one of us, a source familiar with the event told The Hill.
Mary Landrieu illegally uses taxpayer dollars to pay for charter planes. Bill Cassidy is hosting Mitt Romney at a white-linen fundraising event for the 1 percent. Former Republican vice presidential nominee and Gov. Sarah Palin will be joining Rob Maness at an event here in Louisiana at a local restaurant with a great story serving some gator.
As I say, not helpful but probably not fatal. This would be bad, bad news if Louisiana was holding a traditional general election in November, where the candidate with the most votes becomes senator. Maness is polling at around seven to 10 percent; Cassidy is in the mid-40s in most surveys. In a traditional election, youd be looking at the possibility of a 45/40/15 Mary Landrieu win, with Cassidy and Maness splitting the conservative majority. But thats not how things work in Louisiana: They hold a jungle primary in November in lieu of a general election, with the two top vote-getters advancing to a runoff in December unless one of them somehow pulls a clear majority. No one thinks Landrieu is getting 51 percent on the first vote, so even if Palin drives a chunk of tea partiers away from Cassidy and towards Maness, Cassidys still going to be in the runoff with Landrieu. Palin might even endorse him at that point in the name of party unity, just as she has Pat Roberts in Kansas.
The question is, could Cassidy possibly reach 51 percent on the first ballot and avoid the runoff with Landrieu? Hed be favored to win, but anything could before December. Democrats will throw everything theyve got into helping reelect Landrieu, especially if the results on election night in November produce a very narrow GOP Senate majority. For Republicans, its much better to win this race ASAP. Manesss candidacy and Palins endorsement of it makes that less likely but how much less? Noah and I were chatting about it this morning and he flagged these recent numbers from Fox News:
Even if you move all of Manesss voters into Cassidys column, hes still nearly 10 points away from an outright majority. (The same poll showed him up 51/38 in a head to head race with Landrieu a la the runoff.) If Foxs data is accurate then Palins endorsement of Maness doesnt much matter: Realistically, its already unlikely that Cassidys going to get 51 percent during the jungle primary. On the other hand, a poll taken earlier this month by Rasmussen showed Cassidy with 44 percent, Landrieu with 41, and other with nine which would put Cassidy within striking distance of winning the election on the first ballot. To make it happen, he needs big-name tea partiers telling Louisianans to forget Maness and opt for the Republican with the chance to win. Palins apparently ready to tell them the opposite.
Why would she do it given that Maness has zero chance? The conventional wisdom on social media is that shes trying to placate conservatives who might otherwise object to her stumping for Pat Roberts. Its probably the most efficient way for her to behave if she wants to (a) get involved in the midterms down the stretch but also (b) guarantee a Republican Senate. Roberts is the guy whos in deep trouble, not Cassidy; a conservative campaign against him led by Palin or some other tea-party star really could wreck what little chance he has left of retaining his seat. So shes going to bat for him but also for the longshot Maness to reassure grassroots righties that, per Manesss campaign theme, shes one of us. And as I say, it may well be that she ends up endorsing Cassidy anyway before the runoff once Maness is out of the picture.
Exit question: Why would Palin of all people feel the need to prove her grassroots credentials at this point by endorsing a longshot? She endorsed Chris McDaniel against Thad Cochran during a far more competitive, far more important primary where theres almost no chance of the seat turning Democratic. Shes got nothing to prove.
(VIDEO-AT-LINK)
GO MANESS ! No more Senate RINOs !
I agree.
I think Maness should be a good sport, quit the race, support Cassidy for Senator in ‘14 and Vitter for Governor in ‘16. In return, Vitter and Cassidy endorse and support his run for Senate in ‘16.
Any Republican who isn’t emptying the clip on Landrieu deserves to have a Daisy Cutter dropped on him.
We can sort the other stuff later, no way we want a Democrat in office.
I have yet to see any poll showing Maness close to making a runoff. I’ve pretty much given up on him and am supporting Cassidy.
Cassidy is a liberal Republican. Because there is no party primary, this is the only way to remind him that he is dependent on the conservative vote if he wants to win. So he needs to tack right and stay more on that course.
That’s not the point. The point is, you do not have the intellectual fortitude to discuss like an adult those situations where we need to take a stand against the GOP E versus those where we need to beat the Democrat.
This is a valid topic, an important topic, and there are times it is worth losing a seat.
I mean, if you really believed it, you could and would make an adult’s case for it. But no, you don’t believe it, you just want to throw a self righteous tizzy, so you start calling those who want to discuss it intellectually RINO lovers and so on.
Your childish, irrational and hate filled spewings just scream insecurity. I only point out the cred issue because it demonstrates your name calling as absurd. That’s all.
I wonder if this might be a strategy to just ensure that Landrieu gets less than 50% of the vote in the first election, in order make the runoff election more likely (by having more TP voters engaged and turning out for their candidate).
In other words, make this move simply to deprive Landrieu of the first-round victory under the theory that her lazy Dim supporters are less likely to turn out for the second runoff election than the more inspired and dedicated GOP voters.
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