A brokered convention or 4 more years of 0bama.
Why bother commenting when you’re just going to ignore the facts anyway.
Newt is taking away 0 delegates from Romney and keeping Rick’s vote totals under 50%, allowing Romney to pick up more delegates than he would otherwise in a two man race. This has been mathematically proven ad nauseum, but you Newt supporters refuse to look at the math.
If this were a two-man race, the month of May looks very bad for Romney. That month IN, NC, AR, KY, WV, and OR all vote. With the exception of maybe OR, all the other states on that list would be favorable for Santorum to win 50%+ in a two-man race. That would give him at least some momentum going into the June 5 primaries in CA and NJ with the chance to stop Romney short of 1,144 delegates.
However, with Newt in the race, Rick can’t pick enough delegates up and because he is under 50%, Romney will grab more delegates in Southern states than he normally would (AL/MS/OK - SEE AS EXAMPLES).
Example: AR coming up in May, Rick would easily take a 35-1 split of the delegates, with Romney’s sole delegate awarded for getting over 15%. However, with Newt in, Romney will probably grab as many as 6-7 delegates since no one will get to 50%.
Newt is a stalking horse. The math prooves it. Does Rick have to win a boatload of the remaining delegates? Yes? Is it possible? Unlikely, but based on the May Calendar still doable. Is it possible to do this with Newt in the race? Absolutely not.
Santorum took 13; Romney took 7 [Full numbers at top of this LINKED source page]
The remainder will be decided in a caucus:
....."Saturday 24 March 2012: 20 of Louisiana's 46 delegates to the Republican National Convention are allocated to presidential contenders in today's Louisiana Presidential Primary. [Caucus and Convention Rules, Adopted May 21, 2011, Rule No. 19. (d) and 20. (b)]
* 20 National Convention Delegates are allocated proportionally to those Presidential candidates receiving 25% or more of the statewide primary vote. Fractional delegates are rounded to the nearest whole number (rounding rules to handle too many or too few delegates are unknown).
* If no candidate receives 25% of the vote, the 20 delegates will attend the Republican National Convention officially unpledged to any candidate. These delegates will be elected at the State Convention where the participants at the State Convention will alone determine if presidential preference is to be a factor in such choice and, if so, how it is to be applied.
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Saturday 28 April 2012: District Caucuses convene to choose delegates to the State Convention. The participants will alone determine if presidential preference is to be a factor in such choice and, if so, how it is to be applied.
Saturday 2 June 2012: The State Convention convenes at 10 am in Shreveport to elect delegates to the Republican National Convention.
* 18 National Convention district delegates-- 3 from each of the state's 6 Congressional Districts are elected in the Congressional District meetings. The participants at the State Convention alone determine if presidential preference is to be a factor in such choice and, if so, how it is to be applied. These delegates are official designated as uncommitted. [Rule No. 19. (c) and 20. (a)]
* 20 National Convention At-Large delegates are elected according to the results of the primary. [Rule No. 19. (d) and 20. (b)]
* 5 National Convention delegates are nominated by the Executive Committee. These delegates are official designated as uncommitted. [Rule No. 19. (e) and 20. (b)]
The 3 party leaders, the National Committeeman, the National Committeewoman, and the chairman of the Louisiana's Republican Party, will attend the convention as unpledged delegates by virtue of their position."