Posted on 11/04/2010 7:57:42 PM PDT by scrabblehack
I don't know if others find this as interesting as I do but let's see. On another thread there was some discussion about whether PA-12 (Critz, Murtha's successor) would be eliminated in 2012. If the estimates at census.gov are any good, let's suggest some mapping strategies for any number of states. I'm guessing there won't be enough interest to break this into state-by-state threads.
The GOP filed suit to force ME to redraw their districts for 2012 instead of 2014.
The court sided with the GOP. But the lawsuit was frivolous.
ME-1 has 668515 residents; ME-2 has 659846.
Yes, the GOP controls the legislature and the governor’s chair.
Yes, they can put Pingree and Michaud in the same district.
However you’re going to get an urban district and a rural district no matter what. Michaud’s just going to move to the rural district.
The GOP would have spent their energy better in recruiting a good candidate to run against Michaud.
AL is done. Dems wanted two black seats but got just the one they have.
TX is nearly done.
zendari probably won’t like it.
TX-25 (Doggett) points from Austin north toward Dallas; indeed Travis County gets split up 4 ways.
TX-33 is exurban Ft. Worth: Parker, parts of Tarrant and Wise
TX-34 stretches from Dewitt to Mexico; Farenthold’s district points north now.
TX-35 stretches from Austin to San Antonio; not sure but Canseco may actually live in this district now, leaving TX-23 (El Paso to San Antonio) for the Democrats.
TX-36 is in the southeast, from Harris out to Newton.
Apparently TX-35 actually favors the Democrats. Obama won 62-37. So maybe Doggett will run here. McCain won the new 25th 56-43, and the new 23rd 52-47.
This isn’t entirely correct.
TX-25 is a new Republican district.
TX-23 is Canseco’s district that he should hold easily.
TX-34 is a new Democratic district.
TX-33 and TX-36 are new Republican districts.
TX-35 is Doggett’s new district. Ideally though he gets racially primaried and we are rid of him for good.
Overall, we go from 23-9 to 26-10. It’s fine.
What is the net effect?
I think zendari just answered that.
Anyway on the California thread, I should have looked more carefully also.
MPI anticipates Roger Hernandez (D-currently in the CA state assembly) for the COVNA seat; also they’re picking Becerra over Roybal-Allard for the ELABH seat.
They’ve got Gallegly and maybe Sherman moving to EVENT, and McClintock to FTHLL. Also they have Juan Vargas (D-State Senate) for the IMSAN seat.
They also have Costa moving to KINGS, apparently leaving MRCED to Cardoza. (They have Cardoza over Denham - not sure why — Congressional vote was 48-44R; US Senate was 47-44R; Treasurer was 53-35D; Atty Gen 44-42R; Controller 53-35D, and Gov 50-42D. Ooh...Obama carried this district 58-39...maybe that’s it...they also have Denham moving to STANI.
Linda Sanchez’s new district is only 39% hispanic (currently 66%)...she might be the one wanting to move to HTGCC (60%) rather than Richardson.
They’ve got Baca moving from the safe Dem SBRIA to the marginal ONTPM, leaving the safe seat for his son...well, we had two Goldwaters in at the same time...
They’ve got McNerney possibly moving to SNJOA, and Gary Miller to PRS, with Calvert staying in PRS or moving to RVMVN.
The good news in California is that Duncan Hunter is sticking around with a safe seat and Filner is out. Hunter is unusual; one of the few young GOP members who has actually served in uniform and thus has credibility on military issues.
That’s really not all that good news.
As far as I can tell, in CA, we start out at -2. Dreier and Miller are goners.
Gallegy and Capps went from a strong R and strong D district, respectively, to 2 lean D districts. Maybe Gallegy can hold on though.
Loretta Sanchez is a goner under these lines but she will sue to get a more Hispanic district.
There are so many capable highly decorated veterans in the Sanchez district that is the GOP can’t find one (Vietnamese, Hispanics, Martian—whatever) they deserve to lose. Enough of the limp wristers.
Especially since Sanchez is a racist ***** who hates the Vietnamese.
North Carolina has a proposal on the table:
http://www.ncga.state.nc.us/gis/randr07/District_Plans/PlanPage_DB_2011.asp?Plan=Rucho-Lewis_Congress_1&Body=Congress
1st and 12th would be majority black.
Dem-controlled 7th, 8th, 11th, and 13th all voted at least 59% R in the ‘10 Senate race, and at least 55% in the ‘08 Prez race.
12th is not technically majority black in 18+ population.
But this is an absolutely genius map.
GA is on the verge of approving a map:
The empty seat is the 9th - Northeast. Without Savannah, the 12th will be very hard for Dems to win.
In my opinion this is not the most partisan possible map. There are a few counties in the 2nd that voted Republican - although Bishop’s standing is improved somewhat. If he didn’t lose in ‘10, I don’t see him losing in ‘12.
What is your estimated d/r breakdown for Georgia?
10-4, good buddy.
I thought it was clear. Barrow is in a much tougher seat; Bishop somewhat easier; Johnson, Lewis, and Scott about the same. The empty seat tilts Republican.
The good news is that Johnson, Lewis and Scott are morons: they really diminish the reputation of the liberals in congress. Remember when Johnson worried about Guam flipping over because too many Marines were being moved there?
Johnson? You mean this moron, right: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNZczIgVXjg
GOP 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 8th appear to be safer.
New 10th probably tilts Democrat.
Best chance for GOP pickup: 1st (was numbered 2nd). Went 51-49 Rat in ‘10. Loses some coastal areas, gains some more of northern King County.
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