Posted on 02/19/2010 6:55:34 PM PST by HokieMom
2009 might be remembered as the year the Fairfax County Republican Party got its groove back.
The Grand Old Party won special elections for Braddock District supervisor and Providence District school board member, two seats that had been held by Democrats for several years. They also managed to knock off two incumbent Democrats in the House of Delegates after losing ground on that front in the last two campaign cycles.
And local Republicans were produced a 4,500-vote win in Fairfax County for Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) this past November.
Though McDonnell was heavily favored to win the gubernatorial race statewide, Fairfax County had not voted for a Republican in a county-wide campaign since former President George W. Bush (R) won the county 10 years ago.
Even Fairfax’s Republican Party chairman, Anthony Bedell, was taken aback by McDonnell’s local win. On that election night, Bedell admitted that he was just hoping to keep the Governor’s race "close" in Fairfax but did not necessarily anticipate they would win the locality.
REPUBLICAN success in 2009 has given them the confidence to turn their attention to bigger targets, namely U.S. Rep. Gerry Connolly (D) in Virginia’s 11th congressional district.
Two well-known Republican candidates have emerged to challenge the Democrat and will face each other in a primary June 8.
Oakton businessman Keith Fimian, who lost to Connolly in 2008, has been actively campaigning and raising money for the better part of a year. (Connolly and Fimian squared off in the 2008 race after the incumbent Tom Davis (R) retired.) Springfield Supervisor Patrick Herrity (R) jumped into the race Jan. 13.
Connolly is considered the leader of Fairfax County’s Democratic Party. He served as chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors for five years before joining congress in 2009.
"Nothing unites the Republican Party in Fairfax like the thought of getting Gerry Connolly out of office," said Supervisor John Cook (R-Braddock).
Cook won last year’s special election over a better known Democratic opponent in a magisterial district that is entirely in Connolly’s congressional district.
In November, McDonnell beat Democratic opponent Creigh Deeds 55 percent to 45 percent in the 11th congressional district, which includes parts of Prince William County.
The 11th congressional seat was held by U.S. Rep. Tom Davis (R-11) who defeated his Democratic predecessor Leslie Byrne after she had served just one term in office. Davis served 14 years in office before retiring in 2008. The district was created following the 1990 census.
Connolly won his seat during an unprecedented surge for Democrats in Virginia. In 2008, Connolly shared the ballot with President Barack Obama, the first Democrat in 40 years to win Virginia in a presidential election, and U.S. Sen. Mark Warner (D), one of the most popular politicians in the commonwealth.
CONNOLLY is a formidable opponent; he won by approximately 10 percentage points or more in each of his five elections.
While both Fimian and Herrity have lost elections, Connolly never has.
In 2008, Connolly beat Fimian with 55 to 43 percent of the vote. The previous year, Connolly won election to his second term as Fairfax County chairman with 60 percent of the vote countywide.
Connolly has also represented a portion of the 11th congressional district since 1995, when he first won a special election to Providence District supervisor seat.
Jan. 12, Dave Marsden (D-37) scored an unexpected victory over Republican opponent Steve Hunt for a Fairfax County state senate seat vacated by Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli (R). Hunt was heavily favored to win the special election in the district, which partially overlaps with Connolly’s seat.
"I think the 11th district is now competitive again but it is not going to be an easy race," said Del. Dave Albo (R-42), whose district overlaps with Connolly’s congressional seat.
Connolly, for his part, has maintained that 11th congressional district and Fairfax County cannot be solidly counted in the Democratic column.
Though Fairfax is "trending Democratic," the voters are independent minded and look more at the quality of the candidate, rather than the party affiliation, according to Connolly.
"Candidates matter. Campaigns matter. And every election here stands on its own merits," he said.
CURRENTLY, Republicans are trying to determine who is the best candidate to take on Connolly next fall.
Party activists said Fimian is generally more popular with the conservative, "Tea Party" wing of the Grand Old Party. Moderate and establishment Republicans tend to favor Herrity, who has received the backing of almost every Republican elected official in Fairfax County.
While Fimian was likely to run against Connolly regardless of how vulnerable people perceived the Democrat, many local Republicans think Herrity’s entrance into the race is a sign that Connolly looks like he could be defeated.
"I think the fact that Pat is running indicates that both Pat and Keith think that a Republican could win," said Albo.
Some people were a little taken aback by Herrity’s decision to enter the race. By all accounts, Herrity has spent most of the last year preparing for a second try at the Fairfax County chairman position after a narrow loss to Sharon Bulova (D) last February.
"I’m surprised. I had assumed he was planning to run for chairman [in 2011]," said Bulova.
But Herrity said he was encouraged by several people to challenge Connolly and run for congress.
"I have very deep roots in Northern Virginia in business community, in the sports community and in the civic community. The number on industry in Northern Virginia is government contracting. I understand that industry better than any other candidate in this race," said Herrity, whose father served as Fairfax chairman during the 1980s.
And despite his loss to Bulova, the fact that the election for chairman was so close energized party activists and solidified that Herrity was the new head of the Fairfax Republican Party.
"Our party is so much stronger than it was 14 months ago. Pat’s race for chairman inspired a lot of people and he has kept kind of a leadership role since then," said Cook, who has endorsed Herrity against Fimian.
FIMIAN brings his own set of skills to the table, including a proven ability to finance an expensive primary and general election campaign.
At the time Herrity entered the race, Fimian said he has already raised $550,000 to compete against Connolly. The Republican, who heads a national home inspection business, is also a multi-millionaire.
Activists believe he could kick in some of his own personal fortune if that was needed.
"It is a very difficult fundraising environment out there and even really good fundraisers are having a tough time," said Fimian.
The businessman has also tried to paint himself as a political outsider who could bring fresh, innovative ideas to congress.
He has criticized Herrity, who has served as Springfield supervisor since 2007, for involvement in politics.
"Herrity is a politician who has spent his whole life getting ready for the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors. He is big government Republican just like Gerry Connolly is a big government Democrat," said Fimian.
http://patherrity.com/
I’m wondering who is the more viable candidate. Although Fimian might deserve a shot at a rematch, Herrity might be a stronger candidate. Connolly won by 12% over Fimian in ‘08.
I don’t know which of the two is a stronger candidate, but Connolly is definitely vulnerable.
“I’m wondering who is the more viable candidate. Although Fimian might deserve a shot at a rematch, Herrity might be a stronger candidate.”
Excellent point. They need to be told to keep the primary civil. We don’t want a two-man firing squad with a damaged nominee limping into the general. I’ll support either in the general election.
I agree. It will take total unity on the right and a boat load of independents to beat Connolly no matter how vulnerable he is.
If what Fimian says (and the article, that all the moderates want Henrity) about Henrity is true I gotta prefer Fimian.
It doesn’t look to me like the primary will be civil.
CPAC 2010 and Prince William GOP’s Dinner
Feb 22, 2010
Keith joined over 10,000 conservative activists at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) this weekend. The record number came to D.C. to find solutions on how to take back Congress.
Keith also attended the Prince William Republican Party’s Lincoln-Reagan Day Dinner on Friday. He joined Republican activists from across the county to celebrate the long history of the Republican Party and to energize activists for the upcoming elections.
Morton Blackwell Endorses Keith
Feb 19, 2010
Conservative hero, longtime activist, and Republican National Committeeman, Morton Blackwell, endorsed Keith’s campaign for Congress today. Read the campaign’s statement below:
Fairfax, VA – Today, Republican National Committeeman Morton Blackwell endorsed Keith Fimian in his bid for Congress (VA-11).
“I am proud to endorse Keith Fimian for Congress,” Blackwell said. “He ran a strong race in the bad year of 2008. Keith is a true conservative, who has proven he will not buckle under political attacks from the liberals. He will shake up the career politicians and fight for smaller government like all good Republicans should. He is the anti-tax and pro-life champion we need in Congress.”
I know Keith Fimian and he is a very real & dynamic and energetic candidate. He can & WILL WIN!
Keith is addressing substantive & policy differences with Herrity, not putting it on a base personal level, IMHO. He is morally obigated to point out such policy 7 philosophical differences.
I would take notice as I have, when an emininent conservative like Morton Blackwell, a National Conservative Icon and Chairman of the Leadership Institute, endorses Keith and Keith was prominantly invovled at CPAC, which herrity wasn’t, apparently, which may tell us something:
CPAC 2010 and Prince William GOP’s Dinner
Feb 22, 2010
Keith joined over 10,000 conservative activists at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) this weekend. The record number came to D.C. to find solutions on how to take back Congress.
Keith also attended the Prince William Republican Party’s Lincoln-Reagan Day Dinner on Friday. He joined Republican activists from across the county to celebrate the long history of the Republican Party and to energize activists for the upcoming elections.
Morton Blackwell Endorses Keith
Feb 19, 2010
Conservative hero, longtime activist, and Republican National Committeeman, Morton Blackwell, endorsed Keith’s campaign for Congress today. Read the campaign’s statement below:
Fairfax, VA – Today, Republican National Committeeman Morton Blackwell endorsed Keith Fimian in his bid for Congress (VA-11).
“I am proud to endorse Keith Fimian for Congress,” Blackwell said. “He ran a strong race in the bad year of 2008. Keith is a true conservative, who has proven he will not buckle under political attacks from the liberals. He will shake up the career politicians and fight for smaller government like all good Republicans should. He is the anti-tax and pro-life champion we need in Congress.”
Fimian released poll results today:
Posted by Team Fimian - Tue, March 09, 2010 at 02:25 PM
Keith released the results of a poll today conducted by McLaughlin & Associates showing him leading Representative Gerry Connolly 40%-35% with 25% undecided. Among independent voters, Fimian’s lead increases to 43%-28%.
See the entire poll results
http://keithfimian.com/blog/fimian_beats_connolly_in_latest_poll/
“Keith released the results of a poll today conducted by McLaughlin & Associates showing him leading Representative Gerry Connolly”
Good.
Ping to post 10.
Fimian v. Connolly on CNN
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2010/03/16/rep_connolly_wants_wh_call_on_health_care.html
Connolly wavering on supporting Obamacare (he did last time). Waiting for a bribe offer?
Probably. Reading your post #6, I’ll go with Keith Fimian too.
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