US defense expert warns of airborne threat from China

Taipei Times ^ | 21 Decebmer 2001 | CNA

[batter]

WASHINGTON
The Chinese air force could overwhelm a single carrier's defenses if that is all the US could send to aid Taiwan in the event of armed conflict in the Taiwan Strait, a US expert on Chinese military developments warned in a recently published article.

Richard Fisher, a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, a Washington-based think tank, wrote in the most recent issue of Jamestown's China Brief that it is therefore "correct" for the Pentagon to call for an increased US military presence in the western Pacific region in its September 2001 Quadrennial Review.

By 2005, Fisher wrote, the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) will pose a much more formidable threat to Taiwan itself and to US forces in Asia. It could effectively destroy Taiwan's defenses in a large pre-emptive strike when coordinated with massive missile strikes, he added.

"Ongoing PLAAF modernization makes necessary appropriate US measures to ensure the deterrence of conflict in the Taiwan Strait," Fisher wrote, because without "countervailing actions by Taiwan and the US, by 2005 the PLA Air Force could begin to gain superiority" in the Taiwan Strait.

Fisher wrote that according to newspaper reports, the PLAAF sent its new Sukhoi Su-30MKK fighter jets out to the mid-line of the Taiwan Strait in early November, perhaps to intimidate Taiwan before the nation's Dec. 1 legislative elections.

He went on to write that it is important to watch the PLAAF because, though a short-range ballistic missile might carry only a 450kg warhead, a strike fighter such as the Russian-made Su-30MKK can carry about 7,700kg on each mission.

"A war's outcome will depend on the PLA's ability to secure and exploit effective air superiority in the Taiwan theater of operations," he wrote.

Fisher attributed the drive behind the PLAAF's modernization to the growing political consensus among Beijing's leaders to "build a modern PLA capable of playing a key role in forcing unification with Taiwan under Beijing's terms."

Quoting recent reports, Fisher wrote that the PLAAF could acquire between 300 and 400 modern multi-role fighters by 2005 that are capable of all-weather attack missions with modern precision-guided weapons. These aircraft could include 100 Su-30MKKs and hundreds of indigenously built Chengdu J-10 fighters, he added.

In terms of airborne forces, Fisher quoted reports suggesting that China's 15th Airborne Army might be substantially expanded to a force that exceeds 50,000 men.

"The danger is that such a force could prove instrumental in either scaring Taiwan into submission or, if used correctly, could deliver the final blow needed to force Taiwan's surrender," Fisher wrote.

[batter]

Pretty informative and interesting read.

ChiCom Watch

[batter]

FYI
You (except tallhappy - he's already seen this) may also want to check this out:
China Sent Arms to Osama AFTER 9-11

[denydenydeny]

"Overwhelmed carrier" bump.

[Don Myers]

If China gets us bogged down elsewhere in the world, who knows what might happen.

[milestogo]

Read last weeks BusinessWeek. It has an article about the military. It says that the US could stop a Chinese invasion of Taiwan using only 100 fighters and a dizen long range bombers.

[ken5050]

I am not discounting any possible threat from the PLAAF, but I always thought that since the PRC possesses NO midair refueling capability, all the carrier had to do was keep out of range. Look, if the PRC attacked a carrier, we'd be in a defensive mode...would we be launching a strike against the mainland?..heck no..

[Poohbah]

Hmm...and with Taiwan facing national destruction, would they not use nuclear weapons to inflict unacceptable damage on China?

The part of China that makes real money for them (as opposed to ChiCom play money) is about the size of New Jersey. And Taiwan definitely has nukes--and has probably had them since 1979.

Taiwan may be an irradiated mess, but so would China's coastal region.

[Poohbah]

Add one submarine to the mix, and every PLAN "skimmer" (surface ship) goes bye-bye...

There are two kinds of ships: submarines, and targets.

[RightWhale]

An overwhelming attack would have to be coordinated. This is a logical impossibility in a true democracy such as China. The carrier is safe.

[batter]

Fisher may be assuming that China will have an air-refuleing cabability and a more modern military force at that point (remember his is not refering to the present but the next 5-10 years). I'll have to take a look at the Business week article - I want to see if it refers to the present or future.
I am not going to say that what Fisher asserts must unavoidable come true, but it is worth keeping an eye on China's acquasition of some of the hardware he refers to.

[ken5050]

Busisess Week...cover story 1987.."THE DEATH OF EQUITIES"..suggest you try Jane's for military analysis....

[batter]

This article was brought to my attention (I almost forgot about it). It is a good, military "devil's advocate" analysis of potential Chinese aggression in the Taiwan straits. For the most part, it goes along well with today's article:

What if 'China attacks Taiwan?'

[batter]

cabability - capability, duh!

[John H K]

Nothing would be more hilarious than the Chinese attempting to land 50,000 Airborne troops on Taiwan.

I'd pay money to see them get slaughtered. Taiwanese should charge admission.

[super175]

I can't say that I know what kind of defenses that an aircraft carrier has. I am sure that stuff is pretty classified info.

However, I talked to a guy who knows at least some stuff (he was stationed on a carrier for several years), and when I posted the question about attacking a carrier he just laughed.

Attacking a carrier would have to be one major kamakaze operation, and according to the guy I talked to, the reeealy bad stuff about a carrier is not the carrier itself. Its the stuff on the boats around the carrier.

Supposedly anything getting within a few hundred miles, especially with hostile intent, is gonna be sunk or gonna be shot down.

And whats worse is, even if they DO by some miracle get one of them, the after effects are gonna be reeal bad.

[John H K]

And the PRC, IF it were to sink a carrier, would lose pretty much it's entire air force doing so(well, the entirety of the modern, useful stuff..they have thousands of useless 1950s-style aircraft to pad their air force numerical totals.)

Not to minimize the horror of losing a CV, but we have more of those. The PRC only has one air force.

One thing to keep in mind is that our CVBGs were designed to face the worst that the Soviet Union could dish out at their peak in the early 80s. The current PRC Air Force and Navy are a pathetic joke compared to what the Soviets had back then, qualitatively and quantitatively.

[Enemy Of The State]

This article does a good job of re-emphasizing the potential threat from the Chicoms however it doesnt mention the fact that Chinese fighter Pilots dont even log 1/4 of the flight time training recieved by US Fighter Pilots. Therefore making the statement mentiones in Newsweek that the US could counter a Chinese air attact with only 100 fighters very potentially correct. The war in Afghanistan proved to the Chinese as the gulf war did just how much more technologically advanced and militarily Superior The United States is over Chicom China.

[BenR2]

Nuke China now bump!

[verity]

a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, one of 5,302 Washington-based think tanks,

[Lessismore]

He went on to write that it is important to watch the PLAAF because, though a short-range ballistic missile might carry only a 450kg warhead, a strike fighter such as the Russian-made Su-30MKK can carry about 7,700kg on each mission.

How much training does it take to fly an Su-30 loaded with explosives into an aircraft carrier?