Posted on 10/28/2001 11:23:43 PM PST by KQQL
A superstar losing?
TRENTON, N.J. -- As the candidates lined up at the College of New Jersey last Thursday night, the final formal debate in the campaign for governor seemed a mismatch. Republican Brett Schundler is a tall, handsome, charismatic reformer pouring out new ideas. Democrat Jim McGreevey is a pint-sized career politician who never varies the monotonous party mantra. In the actual debate, however, McGreevey was a narrow winner on points. Hardly an engaging personality, he robotically repeated Democratic wedge issues: assailing Schundler for being pro-life, pro-gun and pro-school choice. Schundler, called "unprogrammable" by associates, wandered a little. Disdaining advice from aides to stick to pounding for tax cuts and against tax increases, he went on the defensive responding to McGreevey's massive television ad attack on gun control.
The debate was a microcosm of the campaign, where polls show McGreevey ahead by some 10 points in his second try for governor. How can this uninspiring small town mayor (Woodbridge, N.J.) and ex-state legislator run ahead of the innovative three-term mayor of overwhelmingly Democratic Jersey City? While the conventional wisdom is that Schundler is too conservative for New Jersey, he could sue for non-support by Republicans in the state and in Washington.
Schundler, a rare Republican who attracts non-white voters, ought to be treated like a treasure by the GOP. Yet, Republican Acting Gov. Donald DiFrancesco not only has refused to endorse him but also tries to undermine him. It took three months of tortuous negotiations to get former Gov. Christie Whitman, now federal Environmental Protection Administrator, to come back to New Jersey and publicly endorse Schundler (after suggesting in July that his views are not "compatible" with Jerseyans). Even more surprising is President Bush's passivity.
The unsatisfying explanation for the president's absence from this race and also the Virginia campaign for governor: staying above politics during national crisis. "You can bet that Bill Clinton would be here if he were president," state Republican co-chairman Dick Kamin, a Schundler man, told me. White House apathy raises unsubstantiated suspicions of influence by DiFrancesco, who was the state's first Republican to support George W. Bush for president and campaigned for him in New Hampshire.
Donnie DiFrancesco and Bret Schundler once were friends, but the Acting Governor never forgave Schundler for raising ethical questions that forced him out of the race for governor. "He should endorse Bret Schundler," State Sen. Joseph Kyrillos, the DiFrancesco-selected state chairman, told me. "But too much is being made of it." Apart from not endorsing, however, DiFrancesco has urged prominent Republicans -- including Connecticut Gov. John Rowland -- not to help Schundler.
New Jersey politicians, who, like DiFrancesco mix business and politics to their own enrichment, see Schundler as a blue nose from another culture. A practical political consideration for Republican legislators is their support from the New Jersey Education Assn. They would not relish a Republican governor, supporting parental school choice and breaking the hold of the teachers union.
One week before the election, a few signs of hope for Schundler are visible. In Thursday's debate, McGreevey indicated vulnerability on the tax issue by saying for the first time: "I'm committed to not raising taxes" (with Schundler responding that "they have to raise more taxes" to support McGreevey's spending). Polls are close enough to raise Democratic fears of low voter turnout, particularly among African-Americans. If Schundler can carry his black and Asian voters in his Hudson County base, McGreevey could be in trouble.
There also are signs of Washington awakening. Republican National Chairman Jim Gilmore turned up for the Thursday debate, hinting another $1 million might be forthcoming for pro-Schundler television ads. Presidential political adviser Karl Rove might come up for Monday night's Schundler fund-raiser -- not George W. Bush, to be sure, but a sign that the president cares.
He ought to. The stakes are greater than generally imagined in Trenton and Washington. In dumping annoying outsider Schundler, Republican insiders here may lose control of the state Senate and perhaps even the Assembly. While White House sources talk about the president not campaigning for a "loser," he may discover that letting Brett Schundler go down the drain is the precursor of Republican disaster in 2002.
You have to remember that it would be a miracle if Schundler won. New Jersey is a third world toilet, and the fact that this race is even close is an indication of just how bad a candidate McGreevey is.
The Bush team may be playing this smart, too. I get the same sense in this race that I got in the Giuliani-Dinkins mayoral race in New York City in 1989. Dinkins won that year, but four years later the place was such a mess that the voters had no choice but to turn to Giuliani as their savior.
Can't say I blame him.
Most recent polling numbers in New Jersery (10/17) are: McGreevey (D) 49%, Schundler (R) 39%, Undecided 12%. Source: Quinnipiac University.
The good guys are ten points behind in both races, ten days before the election. Not good. Dubya needs to start stumping for Earley and Schundler.
Yep...but those numbers from the Washington Post are totally fabricated!! Every poll I've seen lately has Warner and Earley neck-and-neck.
FReegards...MUD
Hogwash, IMHO!! There are only two races that really matter this November...NJ & VA!! And Dubyuh has refused to assist one iota in either campaign...he needs to get off his arse and help out!! Bi-Partisanship is fer LOSERS like Dubyuh's Daddy '92!!!
The folks fighting the War on Terrorism won't miss Dubyuh for a day or two while he jets to NJ and motorcades to VA fer a few hours each...and it'll dominate the news.
FReegards...MUD
That's what I said a week ago, and everyone here told me to leave W alone.
Poll puts Warner lead at 10 points
LOS ANGELES TIMES/ WASHINGTON POST NEWS SERVICE Oct 28, 2001
Democrat Mark R. Warner holds a 10-percentage point lead over Republican Mark L. Earley in the governor's race, according to a new Washington Post poll.
Warner leads Earley 51 percent to 41 percent among all likely voters statewide. The margin widens to 24 percentage points in Warner's home base of Northern Virginia.
The Post poll interviewed 1,010 likely voters from Monday to Thursday. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Last week's poll's margin was little different from one the newspaper conducted in August, which showed Warner with an 11-percentage point lead statewide.
An independent poll taken a week earlier showed Warner and Earley in a statistical dead heat. The survey by Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research Inc. of Columbia, Md., showed Earley within 3 percentage points of Warner - within the poll's 4-point margin of error.
Mason-Dixon put Warner at 45 percent, Earley at 42 percent and Libertarian William Redpath at 1 percent, with 12 percent undecided.
A Mason-Dixon poll taken in mid-September showed Warner ahead of Earley by 6 percentage points. That poll also showed Warner with a hefty lead in Northern Virginia.
The Times-Dispatch/NBC12 Poll, also taken in mid-September, showed Warner leading Earley by 3 percentage points, 39 percent to 36 percent, within the poll's 5.1 percentage point variable for error. Sixteen percent were undecided, and 1 percent backed Redpath. Seven percent gave no answer.
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Also, Scott poll had : Warner 44% Earley 40% last week( Margin of error was 5%)
WJLA for the week of Oct 22 : Warner 49% Earley 46%( margin of error was 4%)
Naww, just felt like arguin', my FRiend...plus, I'd prefer not to throw Virginny to the wolves just to make a point about Joisey.
FReegards...MUD
Not me...I've been hammerin' on Dubyuh regarding this fer awhile now...MUD
Earley: This is where W's help can win it. Virginia IS DOABLE!
Well, duhhh. Earley is such a weak candidate that he needs help. Schundler just needs the GOP idiots to get off his back. If Virginia had a candidate like Schundler, we would be turning out to support him. Thanks, VAGOP, for giving us an NAACP sob sister to vote for. That practically guarantees us a Marxist democrat carpetbagger for governor.
Your right. Chrisite "Thinks She God" Whitman's endorsement of Schundler had all the sincerity of a born-again jail conversion.
Whitman et al sure must celebrate the Ides of March.
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