Strategic Central Asia focus of new US attention

Dawn ^ | 2001/09/25 | Maura Reynolds

[Sawdring]

MOSCOW - Collectively, sometimes they are called 'the stans.' Individually, as the US prepares for possible military action in their neighbourhood, 'the stans' are suddenly the focus of intense attention in Washington and Moscow.

When the Soviet Union collapsed, five new states arose in Central Asia - Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Should the United States base troops or aircraft in any of them, it would be the first deployment of US forces on the territory of the former Soviet Union.

Three of the 'stans' border Afghanistan. Three struggle with religious insurgencies of their own. Each of the five is ruled by a strongman, whose governance styles range from mildly repressive to downright Stalinist. And each has its own complicated relationship with Russia, which it must take into account in deciding whether and how to assist a possible US military campaign against Afghanistan, which is said to harbour terror suspect Osama bin Laden.

Since the Sept 11 terrorist attacks, leaders of Russia and the Central Asian republics have expressed sympathy for the US and general support for efforts to locate and punish the perpetrators. But their public statements have wavered, sometimes emphasizing that they have made no commitments, and sometimes emphasizing their desire to help. Central Asia is predominantly Muslim but politically secular, and all five countries worry about the growth of militant religious activity.

The most worried is Uzbekistan, whose Fergana Valley is home to a large number of militants seeking to overthrow the secular government and found a religious state. The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, which President Bush made a point of mentioning in his address to the nation on Thursday night, is said to be supported by the Taliban. The movement also is active in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. All three countries are vehemently anti-Taliban.

The two countries best situated to assist possible US military action are Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Tajikistan has both the region's shakiest government and longest border with Afghanistan. What it can offer most, experts say, is contact with the Northern Alliance, including intelligence information. This was underscored Saturday when the chief of Russia's general staff, Gen Anatoly Kvashnin, met in Tajikistan with the commander of the Northern Alliance.

Uzbekistan, while expressing vehement opposition to religious militants and racking up reported human rights abuses in the process, is highly critical of Russia's continued military presence in the region. It has a short border with Afghanistan, just 90 miles long. But it has a number of prime air bases, including one about 25 miles north of the border town of Termez.

The most inscrutable of the Central Asian countries is Turkmenistan, which has a 500-mile, largely unguarded border with Afghanistan. It is ruled by president-for-life Saparmurad A. Niyazov, who has turned his country into a North Korea-style isolated state. His gold-plated statue rotates on a pedestal in the centre of the capital, Ashqabad.

Unlike the other Central Asian leaders, who have declared themselves opposed to the Taliban, Niyazov has remained pointedly neutral. The reason, experts say, is that he knows that his border with Afghanistan is largely indefensible.

Any of the countries would want certain things in return for granting airspace, air bases or other assistance to the United States. Because all are impoverished, economic aid and investment likely would be on the list. So would guarantees of financial and logistical assistance with likely refugee flows. And then there is Russia who jealously guards its prerogatives in the region, which so far Washington has been at pains to honour, even while flirting with Uzbekistan. The biggest constraint on Uzbekistan might not be Russia but fear of the future. In other parts of the world, military campaigns against religious militants have quelled unrest for just a few years before a backlash ensued. If Uzbekistan grants the US access to its air bases, what will be the effect on its own insurgents?

"After the Americans leave, Central Asian leaders will be left to deal with religious fundamentalists," warned Malashenko, "and they will make them remember these days and pay dearly for having helped the infidels fight their Muslim brothers."