[AuH2ORepublican]

You’re right, the MN-04 held President Bush to 37% in both 2000 and 2004; I mistakenly thought that Bush had reached 40% in 2004. If the Bush 2004 percentage is now 39%-40%, it would take a miracle for the GOP to pick it up. Apart from the LA-02 that Cao took from the indicted (and later convicted) “William “Cold Cash” Jefferson in a low-turnout December 2008 run-off, it’s been over a decade since the GOP has won a House race in a district whose Bush 2004 performance was below 44%. (By comparison, since 2002 redistricting, Democrats have won *42* different House seats where Kerry got below (sometimes way below) 44%.)

[AuH2ORepublican]

Sorry, I miscounted; since 2002 redistricting, Democrats have won *44* different House seats where Kerry got below 44%.

AL-02 (Bright 2008)

AL-05 (Cramer 2002, 2004, 2006; Griffith 2008)

CO-04 (Markey 2008)

ID-01 (Minnick 2008)

IN-02 (Donnelly 2006, 2008, 2010)

IN-08 (Ellsworth 2006, 2008)

IN-09 (Hill 2002, 2006, 2008)

KS-02 (Boyda 2006)

KY-04 (Lucas 2002)

KY-06 (Chandler 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010)

LA-03 (Melancon 2004, 2006, 2008)

LA-05 (Alexander 2002)

LA-06 (Cazayoux 2008 special)

LA-07 (John 2002)

MD-01 (Kratovil 2008)

MN-07 (Peterson 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010)

MS-01 (Childers 2008)

MS-04 (Taylor 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008)

MO-04 (Skelton 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008)

NM-02 (Teague 2008)

NY-26 (Hochul 2011 special)

NY-29 (Massa 2008)

NC-11 (Schuler 2006, 2008, 2010)

ND-AL (Pomeroy 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008)

OH-18 (Space 2006, 2008)

OK-02 (Carson 2002; Boren 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010)

PA-10 (Carney 2006, 2008)

PA-17 (Holden 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010)

SC-05 (Spratt 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008)

SD-AL (Herseth 2004, 2006, 2008)

TN-04 (Davis 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008)

TN-06 (Gordon 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008)

TX-01 (Sandlin 2002)

TX-02 (Turner 2002)

TX-04 (Hall 2002)

TX-09 (Lampson 2002)

TX-11 (Edwards 2002)

TX-17 (Stenholm 2002; Edwards 2004, 2006, 2008)

TX-22 (Lampson 2006)

TX-23 (Rodriguez 2006, 2008)

UT-02 (Matheson 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010)

VA-02 (Nye 2008)

VA-09 (Boucher 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008)

WV-01 (Mollohan 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008)