It wouldn’t be irrational because gunshots happen all the time. Their is loads of evidence in damaged property and in emergency rooms that people fire guns at night. If there were the same evidence of alien abductions as there is for gun shots them you would not be irrational in thinking that your neighbor might have been abducted.
That's what I thought, you are using improbabe and irrational interchangably when they are two seperate concepts. Nothing about the alien scenario is irrational - nothing in modern physics or logic makes it impossible for aliens to exist and to abduct someone without physical evidence thus there is nothing illogical about it - it wouldn't violate a single law of logic. It would, however, be very improbable for the reasons you cite. Just because something is improbabe doesn't make it illogical or irrational. When it comes to God there is nothing irrational or even improbable about it. Further, reality is not defined by the empircal.