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Good Post Turk!

But what's this?encouraging neo-isolationism in America and the cutoff of foreign aid by biting the hand that freed them.

Our new Kurdish pals are sitting on the worlds 6th largest oil field. After they get themselves organized a bit, they should start paying us! Any biting going on here, it's American taxpayers and gasoline buyers should be doing it!
One other teensie thing: the Kurds ain't exactly "Nature's Noblemen." They are ferocious mountain tribesmen. Just because several factions (out of about 10) are united and armed at the moment, it won't take long for them to start shooting each other, if wiser heads (ours) don't prevail.

Giving these Kurd wild boys oil $billions to play with is like giving a baby a locked and loaded UZI. Let's keep an eye on these troublesome, colorful and quaint folks and their oil.

From Stratfor.com...........

Geopolitical Diary, Wednesday, Oct. 8, 2003

The Turkish Parliament has voted to send troops to Iraq to support the U.S. occupation. Many of the details are blurry, particularly the timing of the insertion of troops. However, it appears that the Turks have agreed to send about 10,000 troops, nearly a division, that will deploy in the Sunni triangle -- the heart of the guerrilla war in Iraq.

Turkey's reversal of its noninvolvement policy is a major achievement for the United States. In fact, it is the first major shift in the United States' favor in a long while. The United States needs a cohesive force to engage in operations in the Sunni region. That is to say, it does not really need more international divisions whose various elements can't speak to each other. Moreover, the United States needs the active support of Islamic countries. The Turkish government is moderately Islamic, even if the regime is institutionally secular.

The Turks lend political cover to the United States -- globally and in the Islamic world. The cover is hardly comprehensive, but it's more than the United States had yesterday. The United States also needs troops to share the burden. Obviously, a price will have to be paid. Some of the cost is already visible, and some is not.

The visible cost is with the Kurds. Turkey vehemently opposes the creation of an independent Kurdish state, and doesn't particularly want to see Kurdish autonomy even in Iraq. The Kurds are one of the United States' firmest assets in Iraq. Kurdish forces are patrolling the Iraq-Iran frontier, as well as conducting other operations in the northeast. Unless the Kurds and Turks have accepted some sort of prior understanding, the United States and the Kurds will have some real issues.

This also raises a question that we have been discussing for quite a while -- the affect on the evolution of U.S. relations with the Shiites and Iran. Clearly, the decision to keep the Turks in Sunni areas is conditioned by military reality. It is also affected by political reality. The United States is shifting responsibility in the south to the Shiite community. They can probably live with the Turks in the north, so long as they don't come south.

The real mystery is why Turkey shifted its position. Part of the answer concerns geopolitical reality. For all the stress and strain, the reality is that the United States occupies Iraq and is the dominant military power in the region. Turkey has interests in Iraq and cannot afford to be frozen out of U.S. planning for the region. Another part concerns internal politics. The Turkish military is secular and pro-United States. The government is Islamic and has mixed feelings about the United States. The military is institutionally the guardian of the secular character of the regime. In plain English, that means that the military can stage a coup if it wants. A coup wasn't near, but any Turkish government tries to take military sensibilities into account. Still, the United States promised something beyond money to Turkey. Turkey's decision is a godsend to the United States and the Turks know it. There is a price, as yet undisclosed.

It should be noted that Syria had a really bad day today. The Israelis hit it from the air and massed on the Lebanese border. The Americans probed along its eastern frontier. And apart from all this, the Turkey-U.S. deal creates a major threat from the north. Syrian-Turkish relations have not been the warmest, to say the least. Renewing cooperation with the United States puts Turkey into play to Syria's north. Apart from everything else, Damascus is feeling the heat.

In a way, this puts the U.S. core strategy back on track: first, occupy Iraq; second, bring pressure to bear on surrounding countries. Turkey's decision bolsters the U.S. position in Iraq. It also massively increases the pressure on, and isolation of, Syria. It goes without saying that it also increases the likelihood of al Qaeda striking Turkey at the first practical opportunity.

stratfor.biz (purchased registration required)

I have to say, I have a long memory for what Turkey did at the start of the war, and also for what the Kurds in Northern Iraq accomplished. We can't pretend otherwise.

This is good news. My interest in this goes beyond Iraq, there is a lot of work to be done, and preserving a friendship and building an alliance is absolutely essential. It is a matter of vision.

And since our vision is in play in the year coming up, we need some other adults to be on hand in case our adults are voted into retirement. If Bush is re-elected we will stay the course and rebuild Iraq, of that I have no doubt. And we will use our position there to apply pressure to Tehran and Damascus and Riyadh, and over the next decade we may be able to mold a Middle East that we can all live with.

But if the kids take charge again, the chance is too great that things there can spin out of control again. So we need to work fast, to get as much done as we can in the year or so that remains before the elections, and we must have a fall-back position prepared. That fall-back position is Turkey. Turkey may not like it, but the situation is on her border, and concerns her most directly. If she will help, the risks of chaos if Bush leaves office will be ammeliorated somewhat.

I don't mean that Turkey would take over occupation, but that she would be actively involved in helping the new Iraq to stabilize itself.

And if Bush retains office, there are bigger fish to fry. Riyadh and Tehran come to mind, but don't say anything, we don't want Ankara to slip off the hook when we haven't quite landed them in the boat...