California: But will they vote this time?

Dan Weintraub Weblog ^ | October 6, 2003 | Dan Weintraub

[John Jorsett]

This Mercury News story about the Knight-Ridder poll has some good insights about how this electorate might differ from any in the recent past, namely that Schwarzenegger is getting his margin from voters who have rarely gone to the polls.

[per loin]

This latest revelation about Arnold having been seen touching a naked vegetable at the Safeway store has the vegetable rights people in an uproar.

[Support Free Republic]

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[Congressman Billybob]

Dan Weintraub, who is one of the best reporters on the California recall election, has hit on a central truth about this election. Every now and again, a candidate comes along who can make a measurable change in the total turnout, who can cause people to come out and vote who otherwise would have stayed home.

When one looks at a graph of turnout for presidential elections, there is an uptick in 1992 against a continual decline otherwise since the 60's. Analysis after the election concluded that the presence of Ross Perot in that race caused about a 3% total increase in turnout of people who voted for him who would otherwise not have voted at all. Weintraub is showing that Schwarzenegger is having a similar effect in California, now.

Dispite the last-minute smear tactics of the L.A. Times (among others), this election is over. Although the Secretary of State will probably delay the official certification of the results of this election while Davis and his cronies box up documents to go to the shredders, we should know the real results no later than noon Eastern on Wednesday. Here's why:

For solid reasons I'll skip for now, absentee ballots always break more Republican than the votes cast live on election day. Therefore, if Davis is losing and Schwarzenegger is winning when the live votes are counted, the counting of the absentee ballots will only extend the leads on both issues.

Congressman Billybob

Latest column, "Two Degrees of Separation and a Double Sawbuck," discussion thread on FR. IF YOU WANT A FREEPER IN CONGRESS, CLICK HERE.

[yoe]

Congressman BB, with Davis getting SB60 passed, and the Clinton's there to see it was done, there is no way a real American/Californian vote will see the light of day.

[skeeter]

UPDATE: Some analysts have noted that support for the recall dropped in the final two days of this poll's four-day run. That drop has been attributed to the stories about Schwarzenegger's treatment of women. But the poll also has an aberation: a sample on Friday night that was 40 percent Democrat and only 31 percent Republican.

Media's attempting to create a little reverse momentum going in to Tuesday. Pretty predictable they'd try to follow up the dirt dump & drip of allegations with reporting that the recall is losing support.

And after the election they'll be reporting that the unexpectedly strong support the recall had took all the experts by surprise.

[markman46]

yoe, sb60 does not go into effect until 1/1/04 so should have no effect on this election, beside there is already something like 2 million absentee ballots received.

[navyblue]

"Congressman BB, with Davis getting SB60 passed, and the Clinton's there to see it was done, there is no way a real American/Californian vote will see the light of day."

It may be passed by our left wing legislature and signed by governor Dufus, but SB60 is not in the bag yet! There is already a petition being circulated to void it. Thousands have already signed with the goal of only about 300K sigs. There is absolutely no problem in getting people willing to sign and when this is certified by the Sec. of State, the whole thing will be stayed until the election of 2004. Seems Californians are hot about this one. More than 70% do not agree with SB60. The natives are restless, the torches and pitchforks are coming up the hill.

[DoctorZIn]

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