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Posted on 09/29/2003 10:24:50 AM PDT by NYC Republican
Two pieces on the LA Times web site accuse that new Gallup poll, showing the recall at 63 percent, of:
1. Using a high turnout model: "The poll of 787 registered voters used a model for probable voters that assumes a relatively high 50 percent turnout among the state's voting age population."
2. Using a low turnout model: "The CNN-USA Today poll, conducted among 1,007 Californians between Thursday and Saturday, assumed a low turnout of 51% — lower than election officials expect — in determining which were the most likely voters."
Memo to lying liberal media: I realize you're in a state of denial about the recall. But at least try to get your stories straight when you lie to your readers.
UPDATE: Some of my readers say the poll is junk. They're right. All recall polls are junk, since no one can accurately say who will turn out to vote in this strange election. However, as I predicted in my debate review, Arnold performed so well in the big TV debate that he will likely win this election. We just don't know the margin of victory.
But, the recall polls do vary wildly.
See The Real Clear Poltics Table of polls.
The polls vary greatly with respect to Schwarzenegger and to a lesser extent support for recall.
Bustamante and McClintock are a bit more consistne across all the polls.
All, please respond to the other thread. Thanks
Admin Moderator- can you please pull this thread, as it's a duplicate? Thanks
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Poll
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Schwarzenegger
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Bustamante
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McClintock
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Huffington
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RCP Average
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39.5%
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28.5%
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18.0%
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3.0%
|
|
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40%
|
25%
|
18%
|
2%
|
||
|
39%
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32%
|
18%
|
4%
|
||
|
26%
|
28%
|
14%
|
2%
|
||
|
25%
|
30%
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18%
|
3%
|
||
|
39%
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29%
|
16%
|
3%
|
||
|
25%
|
30%
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13%
|
3%
|
||
|
40%
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28%
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8%
|
1%
|
||
|
28%
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33%
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12%
|
3%
|
||
|
45%
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29%
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11%
|
3%
|
||
|
22%
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35%
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12%
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3%
|
||
|
23%
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18%
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5%
|
3%
|
||
|
22%
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25%
|
9%
|
4%
|
||
|
42%
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22%
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13%
|
7%
|
||
|
25%
|
15%
|
9%
|
4%
|
||
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