Not that we could detect the launch preparations for the liquid-fueled ICBM...
BTW, the Jupiter IRBM couldn't put a nuke on Beijing or Shanghai unless it was based in Guam, but it could put a small satellite into orbit.
I believe we can. You can see the propellant trucks near the launch pads, and certain venting. I'm not aware that China has self-contained underground silos, but I could be wrong.