[Interesting Times]

WTNT33 KNHC 162033
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2003

...ADDITIONAL WATCHES ISSUED...WARNINGS LIKELY TONIGHT...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH
OF CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA TO LITTLE EGG INLET NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING
DELAWARE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH MARYLAND NORTHWARD.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTH
CAROLINA TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH
MARYLAND...AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET
TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA.

HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT FOR A PORTION OF
THE WATCH AREA.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST OR ABOUT 570 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 275 MILES.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE BEING
EXPERIENCED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
THE BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...27.8 N... 71.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 959 MB.

FOR STORM-RELATED INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE...AND STATEMENTS FROM
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Interesting Times]

New vortex data:

000
URNT12 KNHC 161953
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 16/1953Z
B. 27 DEG 46 MIN N
71 DEG 18 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2707 M
D. 85 KT
E. 220 DEG 50 NM
F. 307 DEG 83 KT
G. 220 DEG 053 NM
H. 958 MB
I. 9 C/ 3079 M
J. 15 C/ 3074 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. OPEN E-SE
M. C25
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF963 1713A ISABEL OB 11
MAX FL WIND 95 KT SE QUAD 1720Z. MUCH IMPROVED RADAR PRESENTATI
ON. SPIRAL BANDING EYEWALL.

-----

It may pick up some steam from here.

[Petronski]

Wtnt33 knhc 162033
tcpat3
bulletin
hurricane isabel advisory number 43
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
5 pm edt tue sep 16 2003

...additional watches issued...warnings likely tonight...

At 5 pm edt...2100z...a tropical storm watch has been issued north
of chincoteague virginia to little egg inlet new jersey...including
delaware bay. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36
hours.

At 5 pm edt...2100z...a tropical storm watch has been issued for the
chesapeake bay from north beach maryland northward.

A hurricane watch remains in effect from little river inlet south
carolina to chincoteague virginia...including the pamlico and
albemarle sounds...chesapeake bay south of north beach
maryland...and the tidal potomac. A hurricane watch means that
hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally
within 36 hours.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect south of little river inlet
to south santee river south carolina.

Hurricane warnings will likely be required tonight for a portion of
the watch area.

At 5 pm edt...2100z...the center of hurricane isabel was located
near latitude 27.8 north... Longitude 71.4 west or about 570 miles
south-southeast of cape hatteras north carolina.

Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph and this
motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher
gusts. Some increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 160 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 275 miles.

The minimum central pressure measured by an air force hurricane
hunter aircraft was 959 mb...28.32 inches.

Large ocean swells and dangerous surf conditions are being
experienced along portions of the u.s. Southeast and mid-atlantic
coasts. These conditions will also continue over portions of the
the bahamas for the next few days.

Repeating the 5 pm edt position...27.8 n... 71.4 w. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 959 mb.

For storm-related information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office...and statements from
local emergency management officials.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the national
hurricane center at 8 pm edt followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 pm edt.

Forecaster franklin