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To: shezza
The wind shear has done an incredible job ripping this storm apart. There is still a very real possibility that this storm might take a more northerly turn and ride the coast. I don't want to give off the false impression that it wouldn't.
5 posted on 09/16/2003 1:22:21 AM PDT by My Favorite Headache (Which one will lose? Depends on what I choose or maybe which voice...I ignore.)
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To: My Favorite Headache
There is still a very real possibility that this storm might take a more northerly turn and ride the coast.

Absolutely. I couldn't sleep and came down to check the latest. I must say, though, that I'm much less "antsy" than I was yesterday morning. I do recall seeing models of previous hurricane tracks that indicated category changes plummeting throughout their paths, only to build back up again as they neared the coast. At this point, it's still a matter of wait-and-see.

8 posted on 09/16/2003 1:28:11 AM PDT by shezza (Boy Scout motto: Be prepared)
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To: My Favorite Headache
For those of us that haven't kept up,could you guess the general time to expect a landfall?
9 posted on 09/16/2003 1:29:49 AM PDT by Free Trapper
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To: My Favorite Headache
WTNT33 KNHC 160833
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST TUE SEP 16 2003

...ISABEL CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD...BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED...

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY. INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISABEL.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.7 WEST OR ABOUT 660 MILES...1065 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 435 MILES...700 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT ISABEL HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY BEING EXPERIENCED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...26.6 N... 70.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 956 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN

12 posted on 09/16/2003 1:45:59 AM PDT by My Favorite Headache (Which one will lose? Depends on what I choose or maybe which voice...I ignore.)
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To: My Favorite Headache
The wind shear has done an incredible job ripping this storm apart.

I could be wrong, but I thought it was some unexpected dry air rather than shear. Anyway, it's very good news for people in its path.

14 posted on 09/16/2003 1:49:17 AM PDT by Moonman62
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