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000 WTNT61 KNHC 131807 TCUAT BULLETIN HURRICANE ISABEL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2003 RECENT REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 158 KT AND 157 KT... RESPECTIVELY. ALSO...DROPSONDE WIND REPORTS INDICATE WINDS OF 167 KT...OR 192 MPH...JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE ISABEL IS BEING INCREASED TO 140 KT...OR 160 MPH...AS OF 2 PM EDT...1800Z. THIS MAKES ISABEL A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE AGAIN. FORECASTER STEWART

criminy! batten down the hatches!

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The 5 pm first burst:

WTNT23 KNHC 132023

TCMAT3

HURRICANE ISABEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132003

2100Z SAT SEP 13 2003



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 62.6W AT 13/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 932 MB

EYE DIAMETER 30 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.

64 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

50 KT.......105NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.

34 KT.......150NE 150SE 130SW 150NW.

12 FT SEAS..325NE 325SE 275SW 300NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 62.6W AT 13/2100Z

AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 62.1W



FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 23.0N 64.2W

MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.

64 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

50 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 150NW.



FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 23.7N 66.2W

MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.

64 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

50 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 150NW.



FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 24.4N 68.0W

MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.

64 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

50 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 150NW.



FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.2N 69.4W

MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.

50 KT...110NE 95SE 95SW 110NW.

34 KT...160NE 160SE 140SW 160NW.



FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 26.5N 71.5W

MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.

50 KT...110NE 95SE 95SW 110NW.

34 KT...160NE 160SE 140SW 160NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 29.5N 73.0W

MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 33.5N 75.0W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 62.6W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z



FORECASTER STEWART