Stanford Poll: Terminator in Lead to Become Gubernator

Silicone Valley / Business Journal ^ | 09/08/2003

[DoughtyOne]

LATEST NEWS

3:21 PM PDT Thursday

Stanford poll: Terminator in lead to become gubernator

Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger beats Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante in the Oct. 7 election to replace Gov. Gray Davis, according to results of a Stanford University online survey of California voters. The Stanford poll, taken Aug. 29 to Sept. 8, is the first public poll to put the movie actor ahead of the career politician.

Unlike conventional telephone polls, which have reported Mr. Bustamante leading the recall race, Californians who participated in the online survey voted 40 percent for Schwarzenegger and 28 percent for the lieutenant governor. Among registered voters, 62 percent indicated "yes" for the recall and 38 percent said "no."

Poll results have a 4.3 percent margin of error.

"What this shows is that undecided voters gravitate to the most visible candidate, the candidate with name recognition," says Shanto Iyengar, chairman of the Department of Communication.

Mr. Iyengar and political science professors David Brady and Morris Fiorina sponsored the poll to learn more about the logic behind voters' decision-making leading up to the special election, the first of its kind in the state's history. Knowledge Networks, a Menlo Park-based research firm, surveyed a representative sample of 852 adult Californians, 528 of whom are likely voters.

Unlike conventional polls, which restrict respondents' choices to the top candidates and give them the option of selecting "undecided" as a response, the online survey gave participants the actual ballot that included the question about recalling Mr. Davis and listing the 135 replacement candidates. Mr. Fiorina says this scenario is closer to the actual situation voters will face on Oct. 7.

"What this shows is that when voters have to choose, they're voting for Schwarzenegger," he says. "I won't say he'll win -- the situation is fluid -- but Schwarzenegger has more upside potential. The undecided vote won't break 50-50."

According to poll results, support for the recall was strongly associated with political party affiliation -- 91 percent of Republicans and 42 percent of Democrats "voted" to recall Mr. Davis. Only 3 percent of Republicans chose Mr. Bustamante but 19 percent of Democrats selected Mr. Schwarzenegger.

No other candidate received more than 10 percent support in the poll. Republican state Sen. Tom McClintock received 8 percent; Peter Ueberroth -- who has since dropped out of the race -- garnered 7 percent; and independent Arianna Huffington received just 1 percent.

Forty-three percent of male voters and 38 percent of female voters supported Mr. Schwarzenegger. He also ran well among white (42 percent), Hispanic (37 percent) and Asian (48 percent) respondents. Mr. Bustamante was the clear choice of African Americans (62 percent), but led Mr. Schwarzenegger by only 3 percent among Hispanic voters.

[South40]

Arnold 40%
bustamante 28%
Mcclintock 8%

Sounds about right.

[FairOpinion]

"Sen. Tom McClintock received 8 percent"

==

What happened to Tom's "surge in the polls"?

As I said, the polls are all over the place and in all of them both Bustamante and Arnold are way ahead of Tom.

[Robert_Paulson2]

D1.... you are a glutton for punishment.

Political reality is setting in around here however.
Maybe this thread wont turn into a free for all mudfest...

[Robert_Paulson2]

at what percentage do you think Scwartzenager could claim a "mandate"? just wondering...

[Robert_Paulson2]

"He coulda been a contender if he had just not PEAKED so early...."
< / sarcazzzm >

[Ciexyz]

Good news bump.

To all the Tom McClintock supporters whose actions could very well put another Dem in the governorship, repeat after me: Viva Bustamante.

[South40]

at what percentage do you think Scwartzenager could claim a "mandate"? just wondering...

You think that's possible in an election where one can win with 30% of the vote or less?

Heck, GWB got less than 50% of the vote and according to many he didn't have a mandate.

[Torie]

This is the old poll isn't it? I guess some polls are worth recycling depending on your point of view. Somehow, our ships crossed in the night. :)

[DoughtyOne]

I just think all the facts should be out there. We wouldn't want to see anything swept under the rug. The voters have a right to know and all.

This was actually a rather interesting poll. Ballots were presented that looked much like real ballots, and were even rotate to provide as realistic a presentation as possible.

Democraphics were handled pretty much like other polls with regard to population samplings. And this poll actually kept track of whether the people were actually likely to vote, something some of the other polls don't.

[South40]

lol!

[thoughtomator]

*cough*

ONLINE

poll After all the online poll manipulation that FR does... don't bet the farm on it

[DoughtyOne]

The sampling ended on the 8th. If you look at some of the recent poll date releases, you'll find that their samplings didn't end that much later. And you'll also note they are from more suspect sources.

[ambrose]

yup, already posted here:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/980761/posts

I think people around here rely too heavily on polling to support their positions/candidates.

I have a distinct memory of Clinton consistently getting high polling numbers from 1995 onwards. It seemed like his numbers went up with each new revelation and scandal.

[DoughtyOne]

This was not a public free-for-all poll. It was done by scientific methods.

[Robert_Paulson2]

If we take their eight percent and add it to busty's percentage, according to this poll, Arnold would still win... and I think it would be good for us to win, without the McClintock supporters help.

Personally, I think we may be looking at a landslide, with or without tom's percentage. In the end, I doubt he will even pull three percent...

[Tempest]

I'm confused. Is momentum supposed to go in reverse????

[jmstein7]

Oh, yeah. . . let's trust the LA Times instead.

[DoughtyOne]

I think even you are able to see this was from another source.

Silicone Valley / Business Journal vs the Knowledge Network

If you need any help with that, let me know.

[CheneyChick]

The interesting thing about this poll is that people couldn't choose "undecided". They had to pick one of the actual 100+ candidates. So the fence-sitters who are waiting to see what things look like closer to the real election, actually had to make a choice.

I'm one of those fence-sitters. I'm waiting to see who can beat Bustamante.