Couple of Notes:
I get the feeling Isabel is regarded as closer to the US than it actually is; it likely would be something like 8-10 DAYS till an actual US landfall, should one occur, which is an eternity in the tropics.
2) It's still quite possible for Isabel to miss the US completely, even though it looks like the chances of a hit are fairly good.
3) It's extremely unlikely for a storm that's a CAT 5 today to be a CAT 5 in 8 days.
1 posted on
09/11/2003 1:30:20 PM PDT by
John H K
To: John H K
HURRICANE ISABEL becomes first Atlantic Category 5 Hurricane since 1998..... DemocRATS claim it's all Bush's fault.
2 posted on
09/11/2003 1:31:21 PM PDT by
jimkress
(Go away Pat Go away!)
To: John H K
Yes, but it sure does look pretty.
To: John H K
HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2003
ISABEL HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY TODAY. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM ALL
3 AGENCIES...TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE NOW 7.0 AND OBJECTIVE
T-NUMBERS ARE ALSO ABOUT THE SAME VALUE. THIS SUPPORTS A CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 140 KT...A CATEGORY 5 ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. HURRICANES RARELY MAINTAIN SUCH STRENGTH FOR VERY
LONG...AND ISABEL MAY NOT STAY A CAT 5 FOR EVEN AS LONG AS SHOWN
HERE. THERE IS AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE ABOUT 15 DEGREES TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE BUT THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE
NARROWING AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...IT SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF
AN IMPACT ON THE INTENSITY OF ISABEL. ANOTHER POSSIBLE FACTOR IS
THE COOLED SST WAKE PRODUCED BY HURRICANE FABIAN IN THE VICINITY OF
63W. SINCE THERE DO NOT TO BE ANY MAJOR INHIBITING FACTORS IN THE
ENVIRONMENT...INTERNAL DYNAMICS SUCH AS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES
WILL PROBABLY HAVE THE GREATEST INFLUENCE ON INTENSITY CHANGE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A MAJOR
HURRICANE ON OUR HANDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MOTION CONTINUES AT ABOUT 280/8...ALONG WITH SOME MINOR TROCHOIDAL
WOBBLES. A DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH OF ISABEL IS
LIKELY TO MAINTAIN THE SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT FASTER THAN THE GUNA CONSENSUS.
THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST U.K. MET OFFICE TRACK. THE
LATTER MODEL IS THE WESTERNMOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.
THE BIG QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE WHAT WILL HAPPEN BEYOND THE 5-DAY
FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS STILL IMPOSSIBLE TO STATE WITH ANY
CONFIDENCE WHETHER A SPECIFIC AREA ALONG THE U.S. COAST WILL BE
IMPACTED BY ISABEL. THIS WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE RELATIVE
STRENGTH AND POSITIONING OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NEAR THE EAST
COAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...WE HAVE LITTLE SKILL IN
PREDICTING THE EVOLUTION OF STEERING FEATURES AT THESE LONG RANGES.
FORECASTER PASCH
6 posted on
09/11/2003 1:33:25 PM PDT by
TexasGunLover
("Either you're with us or you're with the terrorists."-- President George W. Bush)
To: John H K
Call me superstitious but I think that if Bush and co stop Israel from killing Arafat this thing is coming straight at us and will stay just as strong.
If arafat is dead in 48 hours then it will miss the US.
8 posted on
09/11/2003 1:34:12 PM PDT by
Centurion2000
(Islam : totalitarian political ideology / meme cloaked under the cover of religion)
To: John H K
good points HK.....although based on its location (north of the islands)....and based on the fact that its 8 days away...i would bet on a trough sometime between now and then (its mid-September) that will add another loop to the historical path page.
9 posted on
09/11/2003 1:35:27 PM PDT by
dennis1x
To: John H K
Isn't she something !!
To: John H K; varina davis; Dog Gone
New Isabel thread ping.
"3) It's extremely unlikely for a storm that's a CAT 5 today to be a CAT 5 in 8 days."
I wonder what effect, if any, the cold front that currently stretches from Texas to Minnessota will have on the intensity and direction Miss Isabel takes.
I guess it's a matter of timing. I'm still sticking with a Savannah to Myrtle beach landfall.
To: John H K
ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH This is the part that is frightening. I'm in South Florida and Isabel seems to be headed STRAIGHT at us. Wasn't the last hurricane to be a Category 5, Hurricane Floyd? Floyd was headed straight at us but at the last moment a high pressure front veered it sharply north.
21 posted on
09/11/2003 1:42:24 PM PDT by
PJ-Comix
To: John H K
Derecho, is that you?
Anyway, I'll be heading out with the DOWs next week to intercept Isabel, assuming it does actually make landfall. Should be an interesting experience!
To: John H K
I hope it dies down, but could this be a GILBERT?
56 posted on
09/11/2003 2:02:15 PM PDT by
Dan from Michigan
("Our party will never be the choice of the NRA" - John F. Kerry, who looks French)
To: John H K
As a person who survived hurricane Camille in 1969, I don't wish these kind of storms on anybody!
No, wait a second....I wish them on the Clintons! Yes, that would be worth the wreckage and distruction if it would wipe them out!
61 posted on
09/11/2003 2:09:58 PM PDT by
4everontheRight
(Nobody gets in to see the wizard! Not Nobody, Not no how!)
To: John H K
To: John H K
To: John H K
This is one big sucker. Lets hope she loses a little steam or makes a right hook sometime in the next week or so.
To: All
155 posted on
09/11/2003 7:11:13 PM PDT by
Bob J
To: John H K
Politics aside, this young french woman is currently trying to row the Atlantic from Canada to France. I think she is out of harms way, but she had to cope with some nasty weather.
If anybody is interested in ocean rowing, here is the link http://www.oceanrowing.com/index.htm
180 posted on
09/11/2003 9:39:44 PM PDT by
Nail
To: John H K
Remember that 3 Dog Night song, "Eli's Comin'"?
Someone just sent me this. He knows I live in Chesapeake, and so thought he'd have some fun...
Isabel’s Coming
Isabel’s comin'
Isabel’s comin' (Isabel’s a-comin')
Well you better hide your ass, your loving ass
Isabel’s a-comin' and the cards say... a floaten house
Isabel’s comin', hide your ass, boy
Isabel’s comin', hide your ass, boy
Boy, Isabel’s a-comin', you better hide
Boy, Isabel’s a-comin', you better hide
Boy, Isabel’s a-comin', you better hide
Boy, Isabel’s comin', hide your ass, boy (hide it)
You better, better hide your ass
Isabel’s comin', better walk
Walk but you'll never get away
No, you'll never get away from a floaten-house
I walked to Chesapeake by the bay
Everywhere I go though, Isabel’s a-comin' (he walked but he never got away)
Isabel’s a-comin' (he walked but he never got away)
Isabel’s a-comin' and she's comin' to git ya (he walked but... he walked but...)
Get down on your knees (he walked but he never got away)
Isabel’s comin' (hide it, hide it, hide it)
Boy, Isabel’s a-comin', you better hide
Boy, Isabel’s a-comin', you better hide
Boy, Isabel’s a-comin', you better hide
Boy, Isabel’s comin', hide your ass, boy (hide it)
You better, better hide your ass
Isabel’s comin', better walk
Walk but you'll never get away
No, you'll never get away from a floaten-house
I walked to Chesapeake by the bay
Everywhere I go though, Isabel’s a-comin' (he walked but he'll never get away)
Isabel’s a-comin' (he walked but he'll never get away)
Isabel’s a-comin' and she's comin' to git ya (he walked but... he walked but...)
Get down on your knees (he walked but he'll never get away)
Get down on your knees
No-no, no-no
Lord, I said no-no, no-no, no-no
(hide it) he can
(hide it) hide it
(hide it) You better
(hide it) Somebody
(hide it) You got t'
(hide it) Oh, my
(hide it) Oh-oh-oh-oh-oh-oh-oh
338 posted on
09/15/2003 7:45:25 AM PDT by
theDentist
(Liberals can sugarcoat sh** all they want. I'm not biting.)
To: John H K
Another season is starting up. Looks like a couple forming up on
NOAA now.
342 posted on
05/21/2004 3:35:25 PM PDT by
RightWhale
(Destroy the dark; restore the light)
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