DISASTER PREPAREDNESS SUGGESTED FOR BAHAMAS AND U.S EAST COAST BY NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

National Hurricane Center, Miami, Fla. ^ | August 10, 2003 | National Hurricane Center, Miami, Fla.

[varina davis]

HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2003

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T6.5...127 KT...AND SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 125 KT. THE MOST RECENT 3-HR AVERAGE OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS JUST BELOW 130 KT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS CURRENTLY NO UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH... THERE ARE TWO VERY EFFICIENT OUTFLOW CHANNELS OPERATING TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE HURRICANE. ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY INWARD BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/9. THE WESTWARD TRACK IS THE RESULT OF A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH OF ISABEL NEAR 30N. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO SLIDE WESTWARD WITH ISABEL FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...AND MAINTAIN ISABEL ON A TRACK JUST A BIT NORTH OF DUE WESTWARD. BY DAYS 4 AND 5 OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...NEARLY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SLOWS THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH AND ALLOWS THE TRACK TO SLOW AND BEND SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT. THE FOUR MAIN TRACK MODELS... THE GFDL...GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS...ARE NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 5...AS THE GFS HAS SHIFTED SUBSTANTIALLY NORTHWARD FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT GUIDANCE...BUT IS STILL ON THE SOUTH EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE ONE OUTLIER IS THE ECMWF...A MODEL VERY SKILLED AT FORECASTING LARGE-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC PATTERNS...WHICH IS SUBSTANTIALLY SOUTH OF THE OTHERS IN BRINGING ISABEL NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS BY DAY 5.

IT IS NATURAL TO WANT TO SPECULATE ON THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 5 DAYS...BUT IT SIMPLY IS NOT POSSIBLE TO DO SO WITH CONFIDENCE. THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MARKEDLY ON HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL REMAIN OFF THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST BY DAY 5.

THE EXTENT AND ORIENTATION OF THIS RIDGING WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE BAHAMAS AND THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. GIVEN THAT ISABEL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY FROM THESE AREAS...THIS WOULD BE A GOOD TIME FOR RESIDENTS TO REVIEW THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS IN CASE ISABEL BECOMES A DIRECT THREAT.

THE FIRST RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FLIGHT INTO ISABEL IS SCHEDULED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MISSIONS TO SAMPLE THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT OF ISABEL ARE ALSO SCHEDULED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[varina davis]

The NHC must really think this is the BIG one! Don't recall suggested preparedness prior to a more specific landfall advisory. The models are pretty much in agreement tonight that Isabel is presently on a beeline to S. Florida, but that can vary greatly over the next week.

One thing is for certain, NO one is suggesting Isabel will turn and track East.

[Corin Stormhands]

Y'all be careful down there. Keep us posted.

[hole_n_one]

[Archangelsk]

Similar thread here: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/980018/posts.

[Sam Cree]

"http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif>

Hi Corin, thanks. A spooky storm, got my fingers crossed.

[varina davis]

Wonderful graphics -- thanks!

[Sam Cree]

Hi Corin, thanks. A spooky storm, got my fingers crossed.

[Corin Stormhands]

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif

[Archangelsk]

Blast: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/980018/posts

[Lokibob]

There is a major difference between disaster preparedness and reviewing plans.

Headlines like this cause unnecessary panic.

[dennis1x]

varina....nothing out of the ordinary at all yet...the NHC urges disaster preparedness during the entire hurricane season.

read the post....the NHC has no idea if this will recurve and eventually head east...some long term models do exactly that, some dont.

if history is a lesson, the odds are much greater that a curve to the NW, then N, then NE will occur at some point in the next 7-8 days based on this time of year and current location of the Hurricane.

as for this being the "BIG" one....there is no one "BIG" one...there are cat 4 Hurricanes every year.

[and the horse you rode in on]

This is already a category 4 storm and has just entered the warm water of the Gulf Stream.

My guestimate is it will hit Charleston, SC as a category 5 storm.

Tracking Map

[Sam Cree]

Gracias, I finally got it figured out.

[kayak]

As of 11 PM Wednesday night, the winds are up to 145 mph and the pressure is down to 27.61 in (935 mb)!

[Beck_isright]

Gee, such good news tonight. I've got my checklist in order:

1. Food and water.
2. Charcoal and steaks.
3. Beer and liquor.
4. A place in South Georgia to escape to because I am NOT riding out a Cat-4, no how, no way!

[txhurl]

You are so freakin' cool.

Thanks, man.

[varina davis]

There is a major difference between disaster preparedness and reviewing plans.

Where I live there is no difference.

[dennis1x]

horse...the current strength of the hurricane has very little to do with future strength. once again...if history is a lesson, a cat4-5 storm rarely maintains that intensity for more than a couple days.

[nwctwx]

Let the freaking out continue.

[dennis1x]

varina...there should be. its called timing....the storm is 6-8 days away, reviewing plans should be taking place now.

in 2 or 3 days, if the storm is on a heading (we will know magnitudes more then) for the US, then disaster preparedness should occur.