Skip to comments.
DISASTER PREPAREDNESS SUGGESTED FOR BAHAMAS AND U.S EAST COAST BY NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
National Hurricane Center, Miami, Fla. ^
| August 10, 2003
| National Hurricane Center, Miami, Fla.
Posted on 09/10/2003 8:11:21 PM PDT by varina davis
HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2003
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T6.5...127 KT...AND SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 125 KT. THE MOST RECENT 3-HR AVERAGE OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS JUST BELOW 130 KT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS CURRENTLY NO UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH... THERE ARE TWO VERY EFFICIENT OUTFLOW CHANNELS OPERATING TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE HURRICANE. ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY INWARD BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/9. THE WESTWARD TRACK IS THE RESULT OF A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH OF ISABEL NEAR 30N. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO SLIDE WESTWARD WITH ISABEL FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...AND MAINTAIN ISABEL ON A TRACK JUST A BIT NORTH OF DUE WESTWARD. BY DAYS 4 AND 5 OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...NEARLY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SLOWS THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH AND ALLOWS THE TRACK TO SLOW AND BEND SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT. THE FOUR MAIN TRACK MODELS... THE GFDL...GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS...ARE NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 5...AS THE GFS HAS SHIFTED SUBSTANTIALLY NORTHWARD FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT GUIDANCE...BUT IS STILL ON THE SOUTH EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE ONE OUTLIER IS THE ECMWF...A MODEL VERY SKILLED AT FORECASTING LARGE-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC PATTERNS...WHICH IS SUBSTANTIALLY SOUTH OF THE OTHERS IN BRINGING ISABEL NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS BY DAY 5.
IT IS NATURAL TO WANT TO SPECULATE ON THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 5 DAYS...BUT IT SIMPLY IS NOT POSSIBLE TO DO SO WITH CONFIDENCE. THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MARKEDLY ON HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL REMAIN OFF THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST BY DAY 5.
THE EXTENT AND ORIENTATION OF THIS RIDGING WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE BAHAMAS AND THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. GIVEN THAT ISABEL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY FROM THESE AREAS...THIS WOULD BE A GOOD TIME FOR RESIDENTS TO REVIEW THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS IN CASE ISABEL BECOMES A DIRECT THREAT.
THE FIRST RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FLIGHT INTO ISABEL IS SCHEDULED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MISSIONS TO SAMPLE THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT OF ISABEL ARE ALSO SCHEDULED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: disaster; hurricaneisabel; isabel; prepare
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-20, 21-40, 41-60, 61-80 ... 121 next last
The NHC must really think this is the BIG one! Don't recall suggested preparedness prior to a more specific landfall advisory. The models are pretty much in agreement tonight that Isabel is presently on a beeline to S. Florida, but that can vary greatly over the next week.
One thing is for certain, NO one is suggesting Isabel will turn and track East.
To: Sam Cree; RMDupree; ksen; trini
Y'all be careful down there. Keep us posted.
2
posted on
09/10/2003 8:14:08 PM PDT
by
Corin Stormhands
(9/11 Tribute www.wardsmythe.com)
To: varina davis
To: varina davis
4
posted on
09/10/2003 8:15:39 PM PDT
by
Archangelsk
("Toss in a buck ya cheap bastard, I paid for your g**damn breakfast." Joe)
To: Corin Stormhands; varina davis
"http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif> Hi Corin, thanks. A spooky storm, got my fingers crossed.
5
posted on
09/10/2003 8:16:07 PM PDT
by
Sam Cree
(Democrats are herd animals)
To: hole_n_one
Wonderful graphics -- thanks!
To: Corin Stormhands; varina davis
Hi Corin, thanks. A spooky storm, got my fingers crossed.
7
posted on
09/10/2003 8:17:38 PM PDT
by
Sam Cree
(Democrats are herd animals)
To: Sam Cree
8
posted on
09/10/2003 8:17:53 PM PDT
by
Corin Stormhands
(9/11 Tribute www.wardsmythe.com)
To: Archangelsk
9
posted on
09/10/2003 8:18:20 PM PDT
by
Archangelsk
("Toss in a buck ya cheap bastard, I paid for your g**damn breakfast." Joe)
To: varina davis
There is a major difference between disaster preparedness and reviewing plans.
Headlines like this cause unnecessary panic.
10
posted on
09/10/2003 8:18:31 PM PDT
by
Lokibob
To: varina davis
varina....nothing out of the ordinary at all yet...the NHC urges disaster preparedness during the entire hurricane season.
read the post....the NHC has no idea if this will recurve and eventually head east...some long term models do exactly that, some dont.
if history is a lesson, the odds are much greater that a curve to the NW, then N, then NE will occur at some point in the next 7-8 days based on this time of year and current location of the Hurricane.
as for this being the "BIG" one....there is no one "BIG" one...there are cat 4 Hurricanes every year.
11
posted on
09/10/2003 8:19:04 PM PDT
by
dennis1x
To: varina davis
This is already a category 4 storm and has just entered the warm water of the Gulf Stream.
My guestimate is it will hit Charleston, SC as a category 5 storm.
Tracking Map
To: Corin Stormhands
Gracias, I finally got it figured out.
13
posted on
09/10/2003 8:19:24 PM PDT
by
Sam Cree
(Democrats are herd animals)
To: varina davis; Guenevere; M Kehoe; oldngray; DJ88; Chairman_December_19th_Society; kassie; ...
As of 11 PM Wednesday night, the winds are up to 145 mph and the pressure is down to 27.61 in (935 mb)!
14
posted on
09/10/2003 8:19:41 PM PDT
by
kayak
(I support Billybob - www.ArmorforCongress.com)
To: varina davis
Gee, such good news tonight. I've got my checklist in order:
1. Food and water.
2. Charcoal and steaks.
3. Beer and liquor.
4. A place in South Georgia to escape to because I am NOT riding out a Cat-4, no how, no way!
15
posted on
09/10/2003 8:19:51 PM PDT
by
Beck_isright
(Shenandoah and Blue Ridge will re-emerge as the investment of the 21st Century....)
To: hole_n_one
You are so freakin' cool.
Thanks, man.
16
posted on
09/10/2003 8:20:05 PM PDT
by
txhurl
To: Lokibob
There is a major difference between disaster preparedness and reviewing plans.Where I live there is no difference.
To: and the horse you rode in on
horse...the current strength of the hurricane has very little to do with future strength. once again...if history is a lesson, a cat4-5 storm rarely maintains that intensity for more than a couple days.
18
posted on
09/10/2003 8:20:55 PM PDT
by
dennis1x
To: varina davis
Let the freaking out continue.
19
posted on
09/10/2003 8:22:14 PM PDT
by
nwctwx
To: varina davis
varina...there should be. its called timing....the storm is 6-8 days away, reviewing plans should be taking place now.
in 2 or 3 days, if the storm is on a heading (we will know magnitudes more then) for the US, then disaster preparedness should occur.
20
posted on
09/10/2003 8:22:37 PM PDT
by
dennis1x
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-20, 21-40, 41-60, 61-80 ... 121 next last
Disclaimer:
Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual
posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its
management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the
exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson