Fabian heads toward Bermuda (heavy damage possible); Florida gets a tropical depression

Reuters ^ | September 4, 2003 | Stephen Breen

[Hillarys Gate Cult]

That sucks. The most powerful part of the storm is it's northeast.

[SauronOfMordor]

Bemuda's getting a direct hit by the center today

[libtoken]

WTNT32 KNHC 050841
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRI ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2003

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM ENGLEWOOD NORTHWARD TO THE AUCILLA RIVER.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES
WEST OF ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA.

HENRI IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 7 MPH AND A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK IS
EXPECTED TO BRING THE CENTER ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY.

BASED ON REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
...THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH.
THIS MAKES HENRI A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

RAIN IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA GULF COAST. BUT
THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND AND UP TO 5 TO 8 INCHES MAY
ACCUMULATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH FLORIDA. DUE TO SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS AND HIGH RIVER
STAGES...THESE HEAVY RAINS COULD RESULT IN FLOODING.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL.

THERE IS A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOS LATER TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OR NORTH FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...27.7 N... 84.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE






WTNT25 KNHC 050831
TCMAT5
HURRICANE FABIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102003
0900Z FRI SEP 05 2003

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

FABIAN IS A LARGE AND SEVERE HURRICANE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 65.2W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT.......100NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.
50 KT.......150NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT.......200NE 140SE 120SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..375NE 300SE 225SW 375NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 65.2W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 65.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 31.5N 65.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT...100NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.
50 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 140SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 34.3N 64.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT...100NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.
50 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 140SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 36.5N 61.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT...100NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.
50 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 140SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 38.5N 58.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 140SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 46.0N 47.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 140SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 54.3N 30.2W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 59.1N 9.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 65.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

FORECASTER JARVINEN