California Recall [analysis: Schwarzenegger "highly likely" to win]

RealClearPolitics.com ^ | August 28, 2003

[John Jorsett]

Recent polls have been all over the place on this race, and they will likely continue to be as pollsters are going to be more or less guessing at what turnout model is appropriate for October's election. RCP sees little chance Bustamante will be able to beat Arnold in a head to head match up, which is where we think the second part of the recall election appears to be heading. Simon's withdrawal on Saturday was a significant boost for Schwarzenegger and it continues the process of focusing the Republican vote. Expect Ueberroth to follow suit some time in the next several weeks. This will leave McClintock and Schwarzenegger as the sole GOP candidates left in the field, as we feel it is unlikely McClintock will withdraw.

Bustamante is going to attract the core Democratic vote, as well as a sizable vote from the Latino community, which should give him around 35%. His problem is where does he go for votes after that? As much as Davis and many on the Democrats' side want to play up the recall as a partisan power grab by the GOP, they are wrong to underestimate the genuine level of disgust and frustration with the management of the states' affairs in Sacramento by people all across the political spectrum, not just Republicans. There are going to be a significant number of moderate Democrats and independents who would typically be predisposed to vote for the Democratic candidate, but in this election they may take a pass, especially if they see Bustamante as merely a continuation of the current failed policies.

Bustamante's best chance is to hope McClintock can hang around and continue to pick up support from the state's conservatives, siphoning votes away form Arnold. With Schwarzenegger's liberal positions on most social issues, and the potential for actions and comments from his colorful past to blow up into a mini-scandal at any time, this is not an unreasonable possibility. However, even if McClintock stays strong until the very end we think Arnold will still be able to pull out a victory, as we suspect he will attract a significant number of non-typical voters, much like Jesse Ventura did in Minnesota. If McClintock fades and the race becomes a clear two-way battle between Cruz and Arnold, Schwarzenegger will win big and it is even possible he will get over 50% of the vote.

Of course all of the above is irrelevant if over 50% of the voters do not vote to recall Governor Davis. All of the polls except one (the LA Times) have shown 54%-69% majorities willing to vote for the ouster of Gray Davis. Our current RCP average which includes the very pro-Democratic LA Times poll still shows support for recall running 57.3%-38.7%. While the evidence continues to remain strong that Davis will indeed be recalled, we think the Democrats have a better shot at getting that pro-Davis recall number below 50.0% than they do of having Cruz out duel Arnold. So expect the Clintonesque strategy of trying to turn this into a partisan food fight to continue, especially as we get closer to October 7 and the Democrats realize Davis, and not Bustamante, might be their only shot to hold on to power.

Bottom line, barring some nugget from Arnold's past blowing up into a huge scandal, it is highly likely that Arnold Schwarzenegger will be the next Governor of California.

[daviddennis]

Just for fun ...

Bustamante - 35% (I think this is too high, but let's try it)
McClintock - 20% (maximum probable, significantly higher than current numbers)
Others - 10%

gives Arnold 35%.

I think it's more likely that if the numbers look like this, about half McClintock's supporters defect:

Bustamante - 35%
McClintock - 10%
Others - 10%
Arnold - 45%

D

[John Jorsett]

If McClintock doesn't get to put a statement on the ballot, I wonder what that does to his numbers? It certainly can't help them.

[daviddennis]

I think it might undermine his credibility a bit, and it's certainly embarassing.

It's not going to do anything to his current supporters, who are voting for him because they agree with his positions.

But he has lost an opportunity to convert people into his positions who did not have positions before, and that's bound to hurt a bit.

However, I think vanishingly few people actually read the voter pamphlet, so I doubt that it will affect his vote more than, say, 1-2%, which is probably not enough to win or lose him the election.

It's not a good thing, and if this election was, say, between him and Bill Simon, I would say it might be fatal. But going up against Arnold, who realistically is such a charismatic and downright likable character, I don't think it will make much difference.

We thought electing a governor with a charisma deficit was "safe"; I think we're going to go for entertainment this time around.

D

[DoctorZIn]

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[Tamzee]

Thanks for the article :-)