Capitol road paved with no intentions? Dems loyal enough to Davis to let state go?

LA Daily News ^ | 7/20/03 | Chris Weinkopf

[NormsRevenge]

There's a popular myth, duly repeated in most news accounts, about the effort to recall California Gov. Gray Davis: The state's most prominent Democrats have "ruled themselves out" as potential gubernatorial replacements should the effort succeed.

That's not what the politicians themselves say.

While elected Democrats are all on record as opposing recall, they've been more circumspect about their ambitions. Politicians are a self-seeking group; few, if any, would pass up the opportunity to become governor just so Davis can hang on to the job.

True to form, the state's top Democrats are keeping their options open. Just look at their no-run statements -- and note the rampant use of that favorite political weasel word, "intend."

Attorney General Bill Lockyer says, "I do not intend to submit my name as a candidate."

"I intend to remain a United States senator," swears Sen. Dianne Feinstein, "I do not intend to run for governor."

Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante shares the same intentions: "I do not intend to put my name on that ballot."

Ditto for Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi: "I have no intention of running should the recall qualify."

"I do not intend" must be the most carefully parsed phrasing since "I did not have sexual relations with that woman." It's a nondenial denial. The conveyed meaning -- I won't run for governor -- is undermined by the literal one, namely, I don't plan to run for governor.

Plans, of course, can change at a moment's notice.

Only two of the state's six top Democrats have made stronger statements against the prospect of running:

Treasurer Phil Angelides hangs on to the "intend" escape clause, saying, "I do not intend to run in the recall election." But he's also vowed, "I do not intend, nor will I consider , running in this recall election" (emphasis added) -- a far more powerful statement, albeit one that still provides an inch or two of wiggle room.

Then there's Controller Steve Westly, whose office issued a statement declaring that "he will not run for governor this year should a recall qualify for the state ballot." That's a solid commitment, although it would have been a lot more so had the words come directly from the noncandidate's mouth.

But none of the state's most prominent Democrats is willing to say, without equivocation, I will not run against Davis. Even if recall makes the ballot, even if the governor's popularity rating plunges into single digits, even if California goes bankrupt and its assets are auctioned off on eBay, I'll quietly stay on the sidelines and watch my party and my state go down in flames.

They won't part with their senses -- or their ambitions -- so easily.

All six of the state's top Democrats have either run for governor before, or make no bones about their plans to do so in the future. If the governor's office were there for the taking, it's hard to imagine any of them passing it up.

That said, they do have some powerful motivations not to run. Public-employee unions, which control the Democratic Party's purse strings, have decided that Davis is their man. No elected Democrat wants to risk alienating labor's support on the crap shoot of a recall race, where, in a crowded field, a single candidate needs only a plurality -- not a majority -- to win the day.

But the quirkiness of the recall dynamic is a double-edged sword.

If anyone can win a recall race, then so can Bustamante, who has far less campaign cash than the other Democrats he might have to face were he to wait until 2006. So, for that matter, can Garamendi, who's already lost two conventional campaigns for governor.

And if these second-tier Democrats were to enter the race, the bigger names, like Lockyer and Feinstein, might also want to join in.

Then there's political pragmatism: If Davis loses the recall election and no Democrats run to succeed him, the party forfeits the governorship to the GOP. Are Democratic officials willing to take that kind of gamble on a governor with a 21 percent approval rating?

That seems unlikely.

For prominent Democrats, the calculation changes as soon as recall actually makes the ballot. Then they must decide whether it's better to risk going down on Davis' sinking ship, or to cast him overboard and chart a new course. They'll make that decision knowing that, in a heavily Democratic state, whichever Democrat enters the race instantly becomes the odds-on favorite to win.

That incentive alone could change a few candidates' "intentions."

[NormsRevenge]

Ping

[Uncle Hal]

I have said it many times and I will say it again: If Davis looks like he is toast, the Dems will be knocking each other down to get into the race. There will be at least one big name Dem. in the race, guarenteed. Probably more than one.

[labette]

I can hardly wait for the cannibals to eat each other.Heh heh heh.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

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[I still care]

I keep thinking of the NJ fiasco where the Democrats illegally forced Lautenberg on the ballot in direct opposition of the law.

When all is said and done, you can count also on CA courts to force a Demo on, even if time limits have expired, to give voters a "choice". So the Demos can stonewall to the last minute.

[breakem]

I agree with this writer. However, Terry MacAwful, the new Davis-don't-dump-me-please campaign chair said Thursday that no dems would put their name on the ballot. Great news, but hard to believe consistent liars.

[GrandmaPatriot]

I heard on FNC last night that the dems could say OK to recall but not OK for any candidates to be on ballot, therefore if recall succeeds the Lt. Gov will become the gov and if the recall does not succeed, Davis will still be gov. That way they get a dem either way.

Could this really happen?

[NormsRevenge]

In a parallel universe, maybe. But here, not likely.

Everything you see posted on this forum by many is pure conjecture and/or crafted propaganda to sway those who don't want to have to make their own minds up.

[sd-joe]

"I heard on FNC last night that the dems could say OK to recall but not OK for any candidates to be on ballot, therefore if recall succeeds the Lt. Gov will become the gov and if the recall does not succeed, Davis will still be gov. That way they get a dem either way. Could this really happen?"

No way, no how. Check California law. Once the recall process starts (and it has already), it goes through to election if enough qualified signatures are collected, and they have collected twice as many signatures as needed.

Davis can not be on the ballot. If there are a majority of votes to dump Davis, he is out, and the person on the ballot with the most votes immediately becomes gov.

If the Dems don't put anyone on the ballot then a Republican is sure to win. If Davis quits, the election still goes on. The Lt Gov is acting gov only until the results of the election are certified.

[jocon307]

"Could this really happen?"

I don't think so, all the articles I've read about this say the law provides for a two-part ballot, yes or no on keeping Davis, and then who do you want instead. I've been assuming this is based on the law itself, and I'm now assuming that this law suit is just another desperate Dem attempt to re-write election law when what it provides for doesn't suit them.

Their party is completely rotten at the core, and they really need to do some mental, spiritual, and emotional housecleaning. But, I don't think they are going to, and I think that we all will get to witness the demise of the whole donkey crowd in our life times.

We'll have America as the world's one super power with the Pubbies as its one legitimate political party.

I can dream, can't I?

[SierraWasp]

"Public-employee unions, which control the Democratic Party's purse strings"

Here is the greatest kernal of truth in this accurate article! In total truth, they control far more than just the DemonicRat purse strings... Far More!!!

These are the most committed fanatical activists organized to the nth degree and are formidabel when threatened as in Prop 226 in June 1998. They can quickly rally liberal non-profits, including religious and environmental as well as consumerism groups.

One can truly become "shocked and awed" by their smashing ability to turn politics in this state on it's head and on a dime, especially with Hollywood's heavy lifting!!!

[breakem]

It's time for an initiative prohibiting these unions from donated to people with who they negotiate their contract (governor) or those who vote for it (legislature). They will claim first amendment rights of political speech, but this would seem to be directly provable as bribery.

Item 1, the correctional officers 33% pay raise coming up in 3 years. Davis gave them this and ensured it would hit when he left office.

[breakem]

uh, donatING

[breakem]

In total truth, they control far more than just the DemonicRat purse strings... Far More!!!

For years the correctional officers union has prohibited private prisons, interfered with investigations and controlled many policy issues.

The lobbyists can enter some legislative offices and right a bill directly into the system. They are far more powerful than the administrators of these departments.

[GrandmaPatriot]

No way, no how. Check California law. Once the recall process starts (and it has already), it goes through to election if enough qualified signatures are collected, and they have collected twice as many signatures as needed.

Thank you for the information. I thought it sounded unfair but of course we all know the dems are both unfair and illegal in their election dealings.

[dalereed]

"But none of the state's most prominent Democrats is willing to say, without equivocation, I will not run against Davis."

Davis can't be on the ballot except to be recalled therefore anyone running can't be "running aginst Davis"!

[breakem]

few understand this because we don't do it regularly. By the time it's over half the populace will ask what happened.

[I_Love_My_Husband]

I guarantee you that Arianna Huffington will be on the ballot. She so wants the notoriety. And that will be great, as she will be soundly defeated.

[eldoradude]

Remember what Reagan did to PATCO? I dream, no, fantasize about the day every member of a public employee union (PEU - you couldn't come up with a better or more appropriate acronym) gets fired. No more dues, no more buying a scumbag governor to do their bidding.