Posted on 05/30/2003 12:06:59 PM PDT by PhiKapMom
RNC RESEARCH
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NATIONWIDE
“Not Sure” Has Twice Support Of Top Dem Candidates. A CNN/Time Poll asked, “Thinking ahead to the 2004 presidential election, if you were asked to vote for a Democratic presidential nominee for president today, which of the following Democrats would you vote for?”
Not sure. . . . . . 30%
John Kerry . . . . . . 14
Joseph Lieberman . . . 13
Dick Gephardt. . . . . 13
Al Sharpton. . . . . . 8
John Edwards . . . . . 7
Bob Graham . . . . . . 5
Howard Dean. . . . . . 4
Carol Moseley Braun. . 3
Dennis Kucinich. . . . 2
Other. . . . . . . . . 1
(Time/CNN Poll, 368 Registered Democrats And Democrat-Leaning Independents Nationwide, Conducted 5/21-22/03, Margin Of Error +/- 3%)
Field So Disappointing, Dem Voters Want Gore Back! The CNN/Time Poll then added Gore to the list of candidates: “As you may know, Al Gore has said he will not run for president in 2004. Now suppose Al Gore changes his mind and runs for the Democratic nomination for president – who would you vote for?”
Al Gore . . . . . . . . . 40%
Not sure . . . . . . . . 19
Joseph Lieberman . . . . 7
Dick Gephardt . . . . . . 7
John Kerry . . . . . . . 7
John Edwards . . . . . . 5
Al Sharpton . . . . . . . 4
Bob Graham . . . . . . . 4
Howard Dean . . . . . . . 3
Dennis Kucinich . . . . . 2
Carol Moseley Braun . . . 1
Other . . . . . . . . . . 1
(Time/CNN Poll, 368 Registered Democrats And Democrat-Leaning Independents Nationwide, Conducted 5/21-22/03, Margin Of Error +/- 3%)
MICHIGAN (Caucus February 7, 2004)
Undecided Beats Gephardt In Heavy Union State. An EPIC/MRA Poll of Democrats in Michigan asked who they would vote for in the 2004 Democrat presidential primary.
Lieberman . . . . . . . . 27%
Undecided . . . . . . . . 20
Gephardt . . . . . . . . 19
Kerry . . . . . . . . . . 15
Graham . . . . . . . . . 7
Dean . . . . . . . . . . 4
Sharpton . . . . . . . . 4
Edwards . . . . . . . . 2
Kucinich . . . . . . . . 2
Braun . . . . . . . . . 1
(EPIC/MRA Poll , 400 Registered Michigan Democrats, Conducted 5/18-22/03, Margin Of Error +/- 4.9%)
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Primary January 24, 2004)
One In Five Undecided. American Research Group’s The New Hampshire Poll asked likely Democrat primary voters, “If the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Preference Primary were being held today between [the names listed below], for whom would you vote? (NAMES ROTATED)”
John Kerry . . . . . . . . 26%
Undecided. . . . . . . . . 20
Howard Dean . . . . . . . 19
Dick Gephardt . . . . . . 12
Joe Lieberman . . . . . . 12
John Edwards . . . . . . . 3
Bob Graham . . . . . . . . 3
Wesley Clark . . . . . . . 2
Carol Moseley Braun. . . . 1
Dennis Kucinich. . . . . . 1
Al Sharpton. . . . . . . . 1
(American Research Group’s The New Hampshire Poll, 600 Likely New Hampshire Democrat Primary Voters, Conducted 5/19-22/03, Margin Of Error +/- 4%)
Shades Of Gore: Draft Would Sap Kerry Votes. The poll then asked, “What if a campaign were organized to draft Al Gore in the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Preference Primary. Would you vote for Al Gore in the primary, or not?”
Al Gore . . . . . . . . . . 25%
John Kerry . . . . . . . . 17
Howard Dean . . . . . . . . 16
Undecided . . . . . . . . . 15
Joe Lieberman . . . . . . . 12
Dick Gephardt . . . . . . . 7
Wesley Clark. . . . . . . . 2
John Edwards. . . . . . . . 2
Bob Graham. . . . . . . . . 1
Carol Moseley Braun . . . . 1
Dennis Kucinich . . . . . . 1
Al Sharpton . . . . . . . . 1
(American Research Group’s The New Hampshire Poll, 600 Likely New Hampshire Democrat Primary Voters, Conducted 5/19-22/03, Margin Of Error +/- 4%)
IOWA (Caucus January 19, 2004)
Undecided Jumps Six Points. A Mason-Dixon Poll asked likely Democrat voters who they would choose in the caucuses.
Undecided . . . . . . . . 37%
Dick Gephardt . . . . . . 25
John Kerry. . . . . . . . 13
Joe Lieberman . . . . . . 9
Howard Dean . . . . . . . 7
John Edwards . . . . . . 6
Carol Moseley Braun . . . 2
Bob Graham . . . . . . . 1
Dennis Kucinich . . . . . --
Al Sharpton . . . . . . . --
(Mason-Dixon Poll, 300 Likely Democrat Caucus Voters, Conducted 5/5-9/03, Margin Of Error +/- 5.8%)
SOUTH CAROLINA (Primary February 3, 2004)
Undecided Leads. When likely primary voters in South Carolina were asked, “If the South Carolina Democratic Presidential Preference Primary were being held today between [candidates listed below] for whom would you vote? (NAMES ROTATED)”
Undecided . . . . . . . . . 47%
Joe Lieberman . . . . . . . 19
Dick Gephardt . . . . . . . 9
John Kerry . . . . . . . . 8
John Edwards. . . . . . . . 7
Al Sharpton . . . . . . . . 3
Howard Dean . . . . . . . . 2
Bob Graham . . . . . . . . 2
Carol Moseley Braun . . . . 1
Joe Biden . . . . . . . . . 1
Gary Hart . . . . . . . . . 1
Dennis Kucinich . . . . . . 0
Wesley Clark. . . . . . . . 0
(American Research Group Poll Of 600 Registered S.C. Likely Democrat Primary Voters, Conducted 4/24-29/03, Margin Of Error +/- 4%)
A Publication of the RNC Research Department
Veddy Undecided....40%
Sherry Notsure....39%
Joe Dontknow....21%
When asked who their VP choice was the top answer is:
Sue Whocares
In NEW JERSEY?!? How in God's name did you get that lucky?
Let us go back to 1916. From 1896 until 1932 the Republicans easily held the office of president for all but the 8 years Woodrow Wilson held it. Yet in 1916 with out Teddy Roosevelt and his third party the Democrats under Woodrow Wilson still won a second term. At the end of the second term the Republicans won it back. And not even the corrupt administration of a Harding could elect a Democrat in 1924. It shows the power of being an incumbent.
Many thought that an economy that had not improved at all from 1932 until 1936 would defeat FDR in 36. But FDR won big time. Republicans had no plan to fix the economy and FDR was at least trying his plan. In a bad economy trying to fix beats trying to stop the incumbent from trying to fix. Harry truman won a second term on his own in 1948 even though the economy was bad. Harry had proposals to fix, the Republicans blocked him.
Ike won a second easy term in 1956. LJB got a term in 1964 and Nixon, Reagan and Clinton got second terms as well.
Only Jimmy Carter and Bush Sr failed in the second term tries. Both Carter and Bush Sr faced economic problems and neither offered a fix. That cost them their second terms.
So history for ninety years shows that a president can win relection easily.. even in bad times as long as the public believes he is trying to fix it and the out of power party is trying to stop him. If the out of power party is seen as trying to stop the in power president from trying to fix the economy,they can lose ground.
Winning elections is not rocket science. When times are good and the nation is at peace the candiate proposing to do NOTHING will win. The public reasons in good times that a candidate that proposes changes can screw stuff up. The public really says, "Don't fix it if it ain't broken."
When the times are not so good or times are dangerous, the public wants the problems fixed. The candidate that proposes fixes will win. The candidate and party that tries to stop him from trying his fix will be defeated.
It is really stupid. The Democrats are looking at the Clinton example and figure opposing Bush's initiatives is the way to go.The strategies that worked in the 90s good times are not worth anything in the new millenium.
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