Help-Wanted index falls

Inman News Features ^ | Thursday, May 29, 2003

[Willie Green]

For education and discussion only. Not for commercial use.

Dips three points in April; job growth not likely until fourth quarter

The Conference Board's Help-Wanted Advertising Index—a key barometer of America's job market—declined three points to 35 in April from 38 in March.

In the last three months, help-wanted advertising declined in all nine regions of the United States. The steepest declines occurred in the East South Central (-32 percent); Middle Atlantic (-18.4 percent); Pacific (-16.4 percent); and New England (-15.7 percent) regions.

"April may represent a low point for the ailing labor market," said Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein. "After initial unemployment claims revealed a big rise in layoffs, want-ad volume significantly declined from already very depressed levels. Clearly, businesses have been busy laying off workers and scaling back already greatly reduced plans to hire. If the overall economy remains weak heading into the third quarter, a return to job growth earlier than the fourth quarter doesn´t seem likely."

The Conference Board surveys help-wanted advertising volume in 51 major newspapers across the country every month. Because ad volume has proven to be sensitive to labor market conditions, this measure provides an important gauge of change in the local, regional and national supply of jobs.

[Always Right]

I guess we may have to wait until later for job growth, but in the mean time we have gains in stocks, consumer confidence rising quickly, corporate profits up over 10%, and a GDP growing at a modest 2%.

[Willie Green]

Unemployment puts a big damper on consumer confidence.
Can't buy anything if you're not making anything.

[dandelion]

I'm hoping that maybe, just maybe with a weak dollar, a demand for exports might grow, leading to job growth as well. Considering the weakness of the dollar, I've wondered if foreign interests might be driving the stock market as well. I'm not sure what the downside would be, but if it generatese foreign interests in American products, real estate, or stocks, wouldn't a weak dollar be a good thing?

Otherwise, yes, it's going to stay a little tight out this way in Dallas...

[Always Right]

Unemployment is still low relatively speaking.

[kaktuskid]

Blame OSHA
Blame EPAs (us and state)
Blame the "family leave act" (why hire someone if you have to give them 3 months off a year?)
Blame tort laws

With all of the above, why would you hire somebody?

[mr.pink]

Can't buy anything if you're not making anything.

And, you won't buy anything if you're concerned about your job security.

[templar]

Can't buy anything if you're not making anything.

Course you can, Willie. That's why god made credit cards.

[templar]

With all of the above, why would you hire somebody?

To make money with your business, of course. A more pertinent question might be: With all of the above where would you hire somebody?

[bvw]

You know, the help wanted ads are an honest measure. Stock prices are prone to fads, and poor measure of economic activity -- stocks don't tell the small buiness tale well, and even about the business the stocks are written on, stock price is almost disconnected from business activity.

Corporate profits? Hmmm .. that's a iffy measure -- the carney barker and paper hawker calls it. Look at taxes paid -- what say they? That's an honest measure. Withholding or Corporate.

GDP? So big an aggregate, what makes it this or thus? Politics! A faint track to reality, that.

And consumer confidence? What may I say. How are the prozac (and such) sales this month. I'd bet way up. Great confidence numbers, eh?