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Panel of top physicians warns Congress about SARS
Star Tribune (Minneapolis) ^ | 05/22/2003 | Rob Hotakainen

Posted on 05/21/2003 6:22:35 PM PDT by EternalHope

Edited on 04/13/2004 3:39:24 AM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Offering a dire warning to Congress, a panel of top doctors said Wednesday that the nation should plan for a possible multi-city outbreak of SARS by next winter and that the United States is not ready to handle such an epidemic.


(Excerpt) Read more at startribune.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: sars
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Not as interesting as going to "Orange", but this is what Congress heard about SARS from the nation's top docs today.
1 posted on 05/21/2003 6:22:36 PM PDT by EternalHope
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To: EternalHope; Judith Anne; Mother Abigail; CathyRyan; per loin; Dog Gone; Petronski; InShanghai; ...
Sobering words.
2 posted on 05/21/2003 6:43:37 PM PDT by aristeides
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To: EternalHope
I still don't understand how an ordinary person can know if they have SARS. It's symptoms seem to be similar to a bad cold or flu. When would a person think of going to the hospital? And how many people may they have infected before they are diagnosed?

Personally, I don't go to the doctor unless I've had some nasty symptoms for at least 4 or 5 days. With SARS, I could be a regular Typhoid Mary if I thought it was just a cold.

3 posted on 05/21/2003 6:56:00 PM PDT by Betty Jane
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To: aristeides; EternalHope
I guess us old folks should get our 'houses' in order this summer. It looks like we are all gonna be exposed.
4 posted on 05/21/2003 6:58:18 PM PDT by blam
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To: EternalHope
Not as interesting as going to "Orange"

Far more so, IMO. So much that I really can't get too worked up over the raise of the alert level.

What are the terrorists going to do? Send someone in on an airplane infected with a horrible, highly infectious disease that kills about one in five of it's victims?

Oh wait, that's probably already happening.

5 posted on 05/21/2003 7:01:46 PM PDT by riri
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To: EternalHope
Bttt.
6 posted on 05/21/2003 7:02:03 PM PDT by Prince Charles
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To: aristeides
Sobering words

Congress was listening. Was anything heard?

7 posted on 05/21/2003 7:03:04 PM PDT by riri
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To: Ditter
Ping.
8 posted on 05/21/2003 7:16:31 PM PDT by blam
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To: riri
"What are the terrorists going to do? Send someone in on an airplane infected with a horrible, highly infectious disease that kills about one in five of it's victims?"

My sister was worried what to do about terrorists when the Iraqi war started. I told her not to worry about terrorist, SARS is the one to keep your eye on.

9 posted on 05/21/2003 7:19:40 PM PDT by blam
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To: EternalHope
    Panel of top physicians warns Congress about SARS

Oh brother ... that's all we need is these ninnys wound-up in a hysterical tear ...

10 posted on 05/21/2003 7:20:57 PM PDT by _Jim (http://www.biomedcentral.com/news/20030320/09/)
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To: EternalHope
"Everybody knows the future, nobody remembers the past!"
11 posted on 05/21/2003 7:22:59 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Subvert the conspiracy of inanimate objects!)
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To: EternalHope
"But Grunseth said the SARS threat has reminded airport police and firefighters to have gloves, masks and goggles on hand at all times."

I read somewhere that airport workers are being discouraged from wearing face masks.

12 posted on 05/21/2003 7:25:12 PM PDT by Pan_Yans Wife (Lurking since 2000.)
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To: Betty Jane
That's just it --- for most healthy people, all it's going to be is a cold or flu ---who wants to be locked up in some quarantine just for coughing? I need to work and get other things done.
13 posted on 05/21/2003 7:26:57 PM PDT by FITZ
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To: EternalHope
MORE good news!

From: http://www.nature.com/nsu/030505/030505-4.html

SARS hits hard
- but control measures seem to be working.

Death rates higher than expected, but control measures seem to be working.
8 May 2003

TOM CLARKE

inset: Sars is less likely to cause as many 
       deaths worldwide as flu.
       © WHO/P.Virot
Nearly half of the elderly people admitted to hospital with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) die from the disease, according to the most thorough analysis of the outbreak so far1.

This sounds bad, but it is comparable to death rates from influenza. Among those under 60 years of age, the mortality rate is far higher than for flu: some 13% of those with SARS die from it.

"It's a relatively high fatality rate," says one of the study's authors, epidemiologist Azra Ghani of Imperial College, London. But this doesn't mean that SARS is more dangerous than flu, she says: "It's much less transmissible than flu and is therefore much less likely to cause as many deaths worldwide."

The study, based on data from Hong Kong hospitals, also provides estimates of the incubation period and severity of SARS.

It takes an average of 6.4 days for a person infected with SARS to show symptoms, the researchers found. Three to five days passed between the onset of symptoms and admission to hospital. This period shortened as awareness of the disease spread.

These figures are in line with previous estimates made by public-health workers and the World Health Organization (WHO). They also suggest that the strategies so far used to contain SARS have been the right ones.

"Based on these data, the control efforts are exactly what they should be," says epidemiologist Ira Longini of Emory University in Atlanta.

The strategy has been to detect SARS cases as early as possible and isolate them from the population. Reducing the time between detection and isolation is currently the best way to curb the epidemic.

Unanswered questions

Crucial questions about SARS remain, some of which could change the study's conclusions.

"The big question is what proportion of infected people get only a mild infection and don't go to hospital," says Longini. If the number is high, SARS is less deadly than the new results suggest. It also means that the true number of SARS cases - and therefore how difficult it will be to contain the epidemic - remains unknown.

The only way to find out is to develop a rapid test for the virus and to screen those in epidemic areas. "I'd put extreme emphasis on that activity," says Longini. The WHO and its partners are working towards a SARS test.

Another key question is for how long virus carriers can infect others for before they develop SARS. "At the moment we don't know about virus shedding in mild or sub-clinical cases," says virologist Albert Osterhaus at Erasmus University in Rotterdam, the Netherlands. Osterhaus is working on this question using a SARS-like virus in animals.

Important new insights into the disease's spread may come from studies of a high-rise housing block in Hong Kong that was quarantined during the epidemic. But these data will not emerge for several months, says Longini.

References

Donnelly, C. A. et al. Epidemiological determinants of spread of causal agent of severs acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong. The Lancet, published online, http:// image.thelancet.com/extras/03art4453web.pdf (2003).


14 posted on 05/21/2003 7:43:34 PM PDT by _Jim (http://www.biomedcentral.com/news/20030320/09/)
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To: EternalHope
"SARS is an epidemic that is still in its evolutionary phase," he said. "It has extraordinary potential. The death rate is alarmingly high."

CONTRAST the statement I just posted above with the part of the article I posted in bold, then riddle me answer to this question:

Who is fear-mongering during this 'crises' and who is conducting research in pursuit of answers?

15 posted on 05/21/2003 7:55:11 PM PDT by _Jim (http://www.biomedcentral.com/news/20030320/09/)
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To: _Jim
This article reeks of a thinly disguised money grab. I didn't see any Republicans quoted, did you?
16 posted on 05/21/2003 8:16:39 PM PDT by TaxRelief
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To: EternalHope
Scaring Congress, the old begging for dollars routine.
17 posted on 05/21/2003 8:18:08 PM PDT by PatrioticAmerican (If the 2nd is for hunting, is the 1st only for writing about hunting?)
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To: TaxRelief
     thinly disguised money grab

That's what I'm thinking ...

18 posted on 05/21/2003 8:20:11 PM PDT by _Jim (http://www.biomedcentral.com/news/20030320/09/)
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To: EternalHope; Judith Anne; aristeides; riri; blam; TaxRelief; per loin
I just *know* you people read all these researched and well thought-out studies, but I'm not so sure that others do - so here's a little excerpt from the Discussion section of the reference cited at the end of that Nature article posted above:
The estimation of case fatality rates in the situation of an emerging epidemic is not straightforward.

First, our estimates are derived from data on clinical cases that have been admitted to hospital and, hence, estimate the mortality rate only in this population.

Second, the temporal evolution of the epidemic complicates analysis.

Finally, the estimates of the case fatality may vary dependent on the methods used and their underlying assumptions, although the estimates we present have statistical validity. All these issues require further investigation as the epidemic evolves, and explain partly the wide range of mortality estimates reported to date.

...

The reported cases to date in Hong Kong and elsewhere may simply reflect people with the most severe clinical symptoms of infection with the new SARS virus. We estimated the case fatality rate based on cases in hospital only.

If additional infections in the community do not lead to admission to hospital or death, the case fatality rate based on all infections would be lower. Community-based serological surveys to assess infection and recovery rates are a priority once a specific and sensitive serological test is available.

To sum it up - the *actual* mortality rate of SARS could be markedly lower than those so far issued, cited and quoted by so many 'news' organizations as posted by a number of you ...

19 posted on 05/21/2003 9:03:50 PM PDT by _Jim (http://www.biomedcentral.com/news/20030320/09/)
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To: EternalHope; Judith Anne; riri; aristeides; blam; TaxRelief
'Story' told to congressman:
But the doctors told the Senate's Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations that the United States was lucky to avoid any deaths this year because winter ended just in time. They said respiratory diseases are typically more serious in the winter.
Hmmmm ... this seems to fly in the face of the aforementioned/cited study - which one do you suppose is 'blowing the most smoke':
Finally the warm season has begun in Hong Kong, with daily temperatures now at 25–30ºC. The seasonal risks of dengue and influenza will increase, and if serious outbreaks occur, they will complicate the triage of patients with possible symptoms of SARS. Thus, measures that can be taken now to limit further transmission, such as the shortening of the onset-to-admission interval, should be given high priority.
It seems to me these folks are more worried about the weather now that it has turned warm - as if it presents a more favorable environment for various contagion than does winter time ...

20 posted on 05/21/2003 9:18:51 PM PDT by _Jim (http://www.biomedcentral.com/news/20030320/09/)
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